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Mr. Ian S McDonald, Serge Bésanger, and Ross Guest

Front Matter Page IMF Institute Authorized for distribution by Donal J. Donovan Contents I. Introduction II. The Opportunities and Challenges of Demographic Change III. Modeling the Socially Optimal Level of National Saving IV. Data and Calibration V. Simulations of Optimal Saving VI. Conclusions References Tables 1. Productivity Weights for 1997 2. Consumption Weight by Age Group 3. Values of Parameters and Exogenous Variables 4. Actual and Optimal National Saving Rates (Percent of GDP) Charts 1. Support Ratios 2

Mr. Ian S McDonald, Serge Bésanger, and Ross Guest

.00 1.05 0.87 0.95 1.19 Weights (U) 0.72 0.72 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.27 1.27 1.27 Note : A = weights based on Australian data, U = weights based on U.S. data. A summary statistic of the demographic structure of an economy that captures the information on labor productivity and consumption demands described above is the support ratio, or the ratio of employment to total population. 7 Employment is an important determinant of an economy’s output, and total population is an important determinant of consumption demands. A