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Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, Mr. Kevin J Carey, and Mr. Ulrich Jacoby

2000 and 2004. In each case, sub-Saharan African producers of these commodities have seen major export surges. Continued rapid growth in Asia offers sub-Saharan Africa opportunities to reverse the long-term decline in its trade share. Because most domestic markets in sub-Saharan Africa are small, exports to Asia offer sub-Saharan African producers opportunities to vastly expand their markets. There is evidence that sub-Saharan African firms become more productive when they export (“learning by exporting”), so an upturn in exports could help lay the foundation for

Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, Mr. Kevin J Carey, and Mr. Ulrich Jacoby

Abstract

What is the impact on trade in sub-Saharan Africa of the recent rapid growth in China and other Asian countries, and the associated commodity price boom? This paper looks at how trading patterns (both destinations and composition) are changing in sub-Saharan Africa. Has the region managed to diversify the products it sells from commodities to manufactured goods? Has it expanded the range of countries to which it exports? And what about the import side? The time is ripe for sub-Saharan African countries to climb up the value chain of their commodity-based exports and/or achieve an export surge based on labor-intensive manufacturing.

Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, Mr. Kevin J Carey, and Mr. Ulrich Jacoby

Abstract

The share of sub-Saharan Africa’s exports to developing countries has more than doubled since 1990. As Asia industrializes, its demand for natural resources increases. Sub-Saharan Africa has responded to this new export opportunity, and Asia now receives about 25 percent of sub-Saharan Africa’s exports. China and India together account for about 10 percent of both exports from and imports to sub-Saharan Africa—25 percent more than the share of these two countries in world trade (Broadman, 2007).

Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, Mr. Kevin J Carey, and Mr. Ulrich Jacoby

Abstract

Many studies have investigated whether regions or countries undertrade or overtrade relative to a benchmark model of trade flows.18 Gravity models are commonly used for setting this benchmark; they derive the level of bilateral trade (exports and imports) from natural determinants: in its simplest specification, trade between any two countries is expected to be directly related to their economic size (GDP) and level of development (GDP per capita) and inversely related to the distance between them. When the observed level of trade exceeds the model’s prediction, the country pair is considered to overtrade; when it falls below the prediction, they are said to undertrade.

Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, Mr. Kevin J Carey, and Mr. Ulrich Jacoby

Abstract

Evidence indicates that sub-Saharan Africa is performing below its export potential. Its export growth derives both from fuels and manufactures, but manufactures are confined to a few resource-based products and are concentrated in southern Africa. Whereas the trade of landlocked countries measures relatively well against the benchmark, that of coastal and resource-intensive countries falls short. Outside of fuels and manufactures, most sub-Saharan African countries remain dependent on primary exports whose value has grown very sluggishly.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Added Value to Its Natural Resources through Industrial Policy.” Review of International Political Economy (2020): 1–34. Greater diversification requires greater trade. Trade under the AfCFTA was scheduled to start in mid-2020 originally but was delayed until January 2021 because of the pandemic. In other regions, trade integration has propelled regional development, allowing the benefits of economies of scale, improving productivity, and fostering structural transformation through new products and regional supply chains. In sub-Saharan Africa, opportunities to

Miss Catriona Purfield, Mr. Harald Finger, Mrs. Karen Ongley, Mr. Benedicte Baduel, Carolina Castellanos, Ms. Gaelle Pierre, Vahram Stepanyan, and Mr. Erik Roos
This publication brings together a set of IMF papers that prepared as backgrounds for the various sessions of the conference and will help put into broader dissemination channels the results of this important conference. An official IMF publication is well disseminated into academic and institutional libraries and book channels. The IMF metadata will also make the conference papers more discoverable online.