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Mr. Kevin J Carey, Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, and Ms. Catherine A Pattillo

literature, but less is known about the link between financial development and growth in sub-Saharan Africa. The scope of the discussion below is limited and selective: it explores the consistency of sub-Saharan Africa data with some important predictions from the literature directly linking fiscal policy or financial development and growth. These areas, as well as institutions—which the growth acceleration analysis highlighted and recent literature suggests are fundamental for growth—are discussed. 27 The coverage of policies is also selective: some of the most critical

Mr. Kevin J Carey, Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, and Ms. Catherine A Pattillo

Development Goals (MDGs). To shed some light on factors associated with substantial jumps in growth rates that are sustained in the medium term, an analysis of the correlates of growth accelerations is presented. What explanatory factors are different for a country during an acceleration episode? Is it possible to identify triggering factors that help explain the timing of a growth acceleration? Can the incidence and timing of accelerations be predicted accurately? Third, the paper examines the consistency of the sub-Saharan Africa data with some important predictions

Mr. Kevin J Carey, Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, and Ms. Catherine A Pattillo

Abstract

Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has recently shown signs of improvement, but is still short of levels needed to attain the Millennium Development Goals. Economists have placed increasing emphasis on understanding the policies that promote sustained jumps in medium-term growth, and the paper applies this approach to African countries. The evidence presented finds an important growth-supporting role for particular kinds of institutions and policies, but also highlights aspects of growth that are still not well understood. The paper includes policy guidance for ensuring that the poor benefit from growth.

Mr. Kevin J Carey, Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, and Ms. Catherine A Pattillo

Abstract

The stylized facts of growth during 1960–2003 are sobering. For the region as a whole, real GDP grew at an average rate of 3.7 percent a year, and real GDP per capita grew at 1.1 percent.4 Real per capita income is approximately the same as in the mid-1970s. Because of very weak overall growth, Africa’s real GDP per capita has steadily lost ground relative to both industrial and other developing country regions. While there have been periods of fast growth in many individual countries, only five countries (Botswana, Equatorial Guinea, The Gambia, Mauritius, and Swaziland) have registered an average growth rate of at least 5 percent. Equatorial Guinea is a special case of an oil boom beginning in the 1990s; only Botswana and Mauritius have consistently grown at rates exceeding the long-run mean for developing countries. Growth rates in Africa also tend to be more volatile than in other regions, particularly at short and medium horizons. Growth-accounting decompositions show that average total factor productivity (TFP) growth for sub-Saharan Africa has declined in every decade since 1970,5 which has been called the primary reason for sub-Saharan Africa’s slow growth.6

Mr. Kevin J Carey, Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, and Ms. Catherine A Pattillo

Abstract

Very large and sustained increases in growth rates are necessary if sub-Saharan Africa is to have a realistic prospect of halving income poverty by the year 2015. To meet the poverty Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), sub-Saharan Africa’s real GDP growth rates will have to double from a base scenario to about 7.5 percent.17 Although knowledge about what leads to sustainable, large accelerations of growth in sub-Saharan Africa is limited, it is instructive to look at some recent success stories within the framework of growth accelerations. A paper by Hausmann, Pritchett, and Rodrik (2004) (hereafter Hausmann, Pritchett, and Rodrik) has proposed that the traditional focus of empirical growth research on long-horizon or panel-data growth regressions can camouflage important medium-term patterns in a country’s growth. By looking at jumps in countries’ medium-term growth trends, they argue, one can gain insight into the sources of successful growth transitions. In addition, standard methods do not directly address a policymaker’s key question: how likely is it that a particular country will experience a growth acceleration that is sustained for a period of time?

Mr. Kevin J Carey, Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, and Ms. Catherine A Pattillo

Abstract

Policymakers are justifiably concerned about the relationship between economic growth and the distribution of income and, in particular, about the impact of growth on the incomes of individuals living below the poverty line. The conventional wisdom of recent years has been that growth leaves the relative income distribution unaffected, while policies aiming to redistribute income risk affect the growth rate adversely (Tanzi and Chu, 1998). The implication is that policymakers should concentrate on growth-promoting policies because the incomes of the poor will rise with growth, thereby contributing to poverty reduction. At the same time, the extent of poverty reduction in a country would depend on the initial income distribution, making the measurement of inequality an important indicator for evaluating the country’s prospects of reaching the income poverty MDG. Recent evidence of different rates of poverty reduction and rising inequality in sub-Saharan Africa points to the continued relevance of the growth-poverty-inequality nexus (Iradian, 2005).

Mr. Kevin J Carey, Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, and Ms. Catherine A Pattillo

Abstract

Improvements in macroeconomic policies contributed strongly to the recovery of the fastest-growing economies of the 1990s and were strongest for countries with on-track IMF-supported programs. More favorable terms of trade also aided the stronger growth performance. However, different aspects of the growth recovery give mixed signals about its sustainability. While total investment has not increased significantly for the fast-growing economies (excluding Equatorial Guinea), TFP growth has improved strongly for the first time since the 1960s.

Ms. Janet Gale Stotsky, Ms. Lisa L Kolovich, and Suhaib Kebhaj

1. Timeline for International and Regional Efforts Related to Gender Budgeting 2. Example of Gender Budgeting Statement on Land Planning and Management Appendix A. Gender Budgeting in Sub-Saharan Africa Data Template