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Aidar Abdychev, Cristian Alonso, Mr. Emre Alper, Mr. Dominique Desruelle, Siddharth Kothari, Yun Liu, Mathilde Perinet, Sidra Rehman, Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig, and Preya Sharma
Far-reaching changes in technology, climate, and global economic integration are transforming the world of work in ways that we do not yet fully understand. Will the swift technological advances of the Fourth Industrial Revolution raise the standards of living for everyone? Or will robots massively displace workers leading to a jobless future where only a few benefit from the fruits of innovation? Will mitigation efforts be able to cushion the adverse effects of climate change, including food shortages and mass migration, which would place extra pressure on urban labor markets? Will countries continue to integrate commercially and financially, fostering growth and employment? Or will trade wars become a norm in a world increasingly fragmented and inward-looking? In sub-Saharan Africa, these uncertainties meet a dramatic increase in population and a rapid expansion in the labor force, which is becoming increasingly urban.
Mr. Xavier Debrun, Ms. Catherine A Pattillo, and Mr. Paul R Masson

: Welfare Gains or Losses 10. ECOWAS Countries: Selected Indicators (Averages, 1994–2005) 11. Full ECOWAS Monetary Union: Welfare Gains or Losses 12. Welfare Gains or Losses from Adding Single Countries to WAEMU 13. Sensitivity Analysis: Effect of Halving/Doubling Parameters on Countries Figures 1. Importance of EAC Trade by Country, 2007 2. Importance of SADC Trade by Country, 2005 3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Convergence in Central Government Balances 4. Sub-Saharan Africa: Convergence in Central Government Expenditure 5. Sub-Saharan Africa: Convergence in

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

The macroeconomic outlook for sub-Saharan Africa continues to strengthen. Growth is expected to increase from 2.7 percent in 2017 to 3.1 percent in 2018, reflecting domestic policy adjustments and a supportive external environment, including continued steady growth in the global economy, higher commodity prices, and accommodative external financing conditions. Inflation is abating; and fiscal imbalances are being contained in many countries. Over the medium term, and on current policies, growth is expected to accelerate to about 4 percent, too low to create the number of jobs needed to absorb anticipated new entrants into labor markets.

Mr. Xavier Debrun, Ms. Catherine A Pattillo, and Mr. Paul R Masson
This paper develops a full-fledged cost-benefit analysis of monetary integration, and applies it to the currency unions actively pursued in Africa. The benefits of monetary union come from a more credible monetary policy, while the costs derive from real shock asymmetries and fiscal disparities. The model is calibrated using African data. Simulations indicate that the proposed EAC, ECOWAS, and SADC monetary unions bring about net benefits to some potential members, but modest net gains and sometimes net losses for others. Strengthening domestic macroeconomic frameworks is shown to provide some of the same improvements as monetary integration, reducing the latter’s relative attractiveness.
Mr. Xavier Debrun, Ms. Catherine A Pattillo, and Mr. Paul R Masson

Africa: Convergence in Central Government Balances (1995–2005) Sources: World Economic Outlook database and authors’ calculations. Figure 4. Sub-Saharan Africa: Convergence in Central Government Expenditure (1995–2005) Sources: World Economic Outlook database and authors’ calculations. Figure 5. Sub-Saharan Africa: Convergence in Seigniorage (1995–2005) Note: The chart does not include countries that experienced sustained hyperinflation over the period (Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zimbabwe). Sources: World Economic Outlook database

Mr. Geoffrey J Bannister and Mr. Alex Mourmouras
We present estimates of welfare by country for 2007 and 2014 using the methodology of Jones and Klenow (2016) which incorporates consumption, leisure, mortality and inequality, and we extend the methodology to include environmental externalities. During the period of the global financial crisis welfare grew slightly more rapidly than income per capita, mainly due to improvements in life expectancy. This led to welfare convergence in most regions towards advanced country levels. Introducing environmental effects changes the welfare ranking for countries that rely heavily on natural resources, highlighting the importance of the natural resource base in welfare. This methodology could provide a theoretically consistent and tractable way of monitoring progress in several Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators.
Mr. Geoffrey J Bannister and Mr. Alex Mourmouras

than income. Nevertheless this is a positive development as it shows Sub-Saharan Africa converging, albeit slowly, to advanced country levels of income and welfare. To summarize, over the period 2007 to 2014, gains in income were largely matched by gains in welfare, and there was convergence in most regions towards advanced country levels. However the main contribution to growth in welfare came from improvements in life expectancy while gains in current consumption were small or negative. Leisure and inequality did not change significantly over the period and

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

power parity; SSA = sub-Saharan Africa. Convergence prospects vary across regions. Income convergence is projected to continue in China, India, and east Asia more broadly, as well as in emerging Europe and parts of the Commonwealth of Independent States. By contrast, per capita growth in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East, North Africa, Pakistan, and Afghanistan region is projected to fall short of or barely exceed that in advanced economies over the next few years, reflecting the weak performance of the many commodity