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Mr. Francesco Caselli, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Mr. Damiano Sandri, and Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo

women. The differential impact is statistically significant and quantitatively relevant. Among people aged 24 to 45, a full lockdown—including all measures used by governments during the pandemic—reduces the number of women leaving home by almost 26 percent, against an impact on men of about 21 percent. The local projections also allow to examine the effects of rising COVID-19 cases on mobility for a given level of the stringency of lockdowns. This captures the extent to which people decide to voluntarily limit social interactions when the fear of contracting the

the sample. Using data from the Oxford Coronavirus Government Response Tracker , this approach accounts for differences in the stringency of lockdown measures among countries. The outcome: more than 97 million jobs are at high risk of layoff or furlough across the 35-country sample, with the United States alone contributing more than 21 million jobs to this total. The accommodation and food services sector is the worst hit, with more than 17 million workers at risk of job loss, equivalent to 47 percent of all jobs in that sector. Sectors including finance and

Mr. Francesco Caselli, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Mr. Damiano Sandri, and Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo
Lockdowns and voluntary social distancing led to significant reduction in people’s mobility. Yet, there is scant evidence on the heterogeneous effects across segments of the population. Using unique mobility indicators based on anonymized and aggregate data provided by Vodafone for Italy, Portugal, and Spain, we find that lockdowns had a larger impact on the mobility of women and younger cohorts. Younger people also experienced a sharper drop in mobility in response to rising COVID-19 infections. Our findings, which are consistent across estimation methods and robust to a variety of tests, warn about a possible widening of gender and inter-generational inequality and provide important inputs for the formulation of targeted policies.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

between the stringency of lockdowns during the first half of 2020 and the decline in GDP relative to pre-pandemic forecasts. 3 The figure illustrates that countries that implemented more stringent lockdowns experienced sharper GDP contractions. Figure 2.1. Lockdowns and Economic Activity Sources: Haver Analytics; Oxford Coronavirus Government Response Tracker; World Economic Outlook (WEO) database; and IMF staff calculations. Note: Panel 1: The GDP forecast errors are defined as the deviations from January 2020 WEO projections for the first half of 2020 (2020

Mr. Francesco Caselli, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Weicheng Lian, and Mr. Damiano Sandri

, t − p + ε i , t + h ( 1 ) The variable mob i,t+h denotes the level of mobility for country i at time t + h , with h being the horizon; 5 ln∆casesi i,t-p is the log of daily COVID-19 cases, which is used to track the stage of the pandemic, with p being the lag length; and lock i,t-p is an index measuring the stringency of lockdowns. 6 The specification also features lags of the dependent variable to account for pre-existing trends, and country and time fixed effects to control

Andras Komaromi

exposure is measured by a set of weights or “shares”. Our units are countries that are differentially exposed to lockdown measures in other countries due to the heterogeneity in pre-existing trade connections. Specification . Let M ^ i t denote year-on-year import growth in country i on day t . We want to identify the supply spillover effect that foreign governments’ lockdowns may have had on this import growth. Let lj t be the stringency of lockdown measures in country j and on day t . Further let w i,j denote the pre-COVID fraction of imports into

Mariya Brussevich, Shihui Liu, and Mr. Chris Papageorgiou

.5 percentage point in 2024. However, the overall impact of the average stringency of lockdowns is stronger in the case of Malaysia over the medium term at over 1.2 percentage points. Figure 6: Magnitude of key channels for countries in the 30th and 70th percentiles of GDP per capita distribution Source: Flightradar24, JHU CSSE COVID-19 Data, Our World in Data, Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, World Bank, World Economic Outlook. Note: Each bar shows the magnitude of the corresponding variable’s effect on Ghana’s (representing the 30th percentile of

Mariya Brussevich, Mr. Chris Papageorgiou, and Pauline Wibaux

developing trade partners exhibiting higher levels of volatility in trade linkages. We use variation in timing and stringency of lockdowns as well as the number of the COVID-19 related deaths across countries to identify the effect of the pandemic on French firms’ exports and imports and to disentangle demand and supply forces driving the trade adjustment. First, our findings suggest that French firms substantially reduced both exports and imports in response to the shock, with lockdowns being the main transmission mechanism. Implementing the most stringent lockdowns (e

Mariya Brussevich, Mr. Chris Papageorgiou, and Pauline Wibaux
This paper uses granular customs data from France to investigate propagation of the COVID-19 shock along the supply chains in 2020. It quantifies the effect of the COVID-19 shock on trade adjustment and identifies mitigating and amplifying factors contributing to French firms’ heterogeneous adjustment paths. Early in the pandemic, firms mainly responded to global lockdowns and spread of the virus by reducing trade volumes (intensive margin) as opposed to exiting from import and export markets (ex-tensive margin). However, adjustment along the extensive margin played a more important role in trade with developing countries. It is shown that the impact of lockdowns was stronger for final consumer goods and the trade recovery was predominantly demand-driven. More automated, inventory-intensive, older, and medium-sized firms were more insulated from the shock, whereas firms’ reliance on air transportation for shipping goods amplified the shock. Trade bans and promotion measures implemented by governments in response to the pandemic had little impact on aggregate trade flows.
Mariya Brussevich, Shihui Liu, and Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
The paper extends the work of Deaton (2021) by exploring the period of post-crisis recovery in 2021-2024. The paper documents per-capita income divergence during the period of post-shock recovery, with countries at the bottom of the income distribution falling significantly behind. Findings suggest that higher COVID-19 vaccination rates and targeted virus containment measures are associated with faster recovery in per-capita incomes in the medium term. Evidence on the effectiveness of economic support policies for reducing cross-country income inequality, including fiscal and monetary policies, is mixed especially in the case of developing countries.