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Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Mr. Luca A Ricci, Alejandro Mariano Werner, and Rene Zamarripa

are relevant for growth revisions in all country groups; (iv) WEO and Consensus Forecast growth revisions are highly correlated; (v) fall-to-spring WEO revisions are m o re correlated with Consensus Forecasts revisions compared to spring-to-fall revisions; and (vi) across vintages, revisions for a given time horizon are not autocorrelated; within vintages, revisions tend to be positively correlated, suggesting perception of persistent short-term shocks. JEL Classification Numbers: E17, E37, F47 Keywords: Economic forecasts, Forecast revisions, Growth forecasts

Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Mr. Luca A Ricci, Alejandro Mariano Werner, and Rene Zamarripa
This paper investigates the performance of the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country groups. We find that: (i) growth revisions in horizons closer to the actual are generally larger, more volatile, and more negative; (ii) on average, growth revisions are in the right direction, becoming progressively more responsive to the forecast error gap as horizons get closer to the actual year; (iii) growth revisions in systemic economies are relevant for growth revisions in all country groups; (iv) WEO and Consensus Forecast growth revisions are highly correlated; (v) fall-to-spring WEO revisions are more correlated with Consensus Forecasts revisions compared to spring-to-fall revisions; and (vi) across vintages, revisions for a given time horizon are not autocorrelated; within vintages, revisions tend to be positively correlated, suggesting perception of persistent short-term shocks.
Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Mr. Luca A Ricci, Alejandro Mariano Werner, and Rene Zamarripa

-to-Spring revisions, while Spring-to-Fall revisions seem to have almost no impact (with an oscillating pattern in the last horizons). While the underlying reasons are not clear, this finding implies that forecast teams better reflect systemic economies’ revisions when updating their forecasts in Spring rather than in Fall. Figure 17. Impact of Growth Revisions in Systemic Economies (Semi-Annual Revisions) Note: Black dots denote significance at 10 percent level. Red dots indicate lack thereof. Source: WEO database and authors’ calculations. Asymmetric Impact