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Benjamin Carton, Mr. Joannes Mongardini, and Yiqun Li
The enormous global demand for smartphones in recent years has created a new global tech cycle. In 2016 alone, global smartphone sales reached close to 1.5 billion, one for every fifth person on earth. In turn, this has engendered complex and evolving supply chains across Asia. We show that the new tech cycle cannot be captured by standard seasonality, but depends on smartphone product release dates. Decomposing cycle from trend, we also show that the sale of smartphones may have peaked in late 2015. Asia, however, continues to gain in importance as the global tech manufacturer.
Benjamin Carton, Mr. Joannes Mongardini, and Yiqun Li

and Samsung Phone Releases, China Smartphone Exports, South Korea Semiconductor Exports, and Taiwan Province of China Electronic Export Orders 3. Global iPhone Sales 4. Electronics Component Exports 5. Geography of Pre-Release Cycle 6. Geography of Post-Release Cycle 7. China: Smartphone Export Cycle 8. South Korea: Semiconductor Export Cycle 9. Intel and Samsung: Sales of Semiconductor Chips 10. Taiwan Province of China: Electronic Export Orders Cycle Appendixes I. Apple Inc. and Samsung Electronics Smartphone Release Dates II. Regression

Benjamin Carton, Mr. Joannes Mongardini, and Yiqun Li

). However, these results are partly driven by the lack of data for the second half of 2017, which may overstate the amount of the recent downturn in the trend. The coefficient on the Chinese New Year dummy is negative and highly significant as expected, given the shutdown of smartphone manufacturing during these holidays (red line in Figure 7 ). Overall, the decomposition between cycle and trend explains about 92 percent of Chinese smartphone exports (green line in Figure 7 ). Figure 7. China: Smartphone Export Cycle (Millions of Units Exported Per Month

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

2018 ). Figure 1.1.3 . China: Smartphone Export Cycle (Millions of units) Sources: Haver Analytics; TDM Data; and IMF staff calculations. However, Asia continues to gain market share in other consumer electronics, including embedded automobile computers, smart appliances, and wearable devices. This is evident in the rising demand for Korean semiconductors and, to a lesser extent, in Taiwan Province of China’s electronic export orders. In fact, trend demand for Korean semiconductor exports continues to accelerate, despite the slowdown in global