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Ruchir Agarwal, Ms. Gita Gopinath, Jeremy Farrar, Richard Hatchett, and Peter Sands
The pandemic is not over, and the health and economic losses continue to grow. It is now evident that COVID-19 will be with us for the long term, and there are very different scenarios for how it could evolve, from a mild endemic scenario to a dangerous variant scenario. This realization calls for a new strategy that manages both the uncertainty and the long-term risks of COVID-19. There are four key policy implications of such as strategy. First, we need to achieve equitable access beyond vaccines to encompass a comprehensive toolkit. Second, we must monitor the evolving virus and dynamically upgrade the toolkit. Third, we must transition from the acute response to a sustainable strategy toward COVID-19, balanced and integrated with other health and social priorities. Fourth, we need a unified risk-mitigation approach to future infectious disease threats beyond COVID-19. Infectious diseases with pandemic potential are a threat to global economic and health security. The international community should recognize that its pandemic financing addresses a systemic risk to the global economy, not just the development need of a particular country. Accordingly, it should allocate additional funding to fight pandemics and strengthen health systems both domestically and overseas. This will require about $15 billion in grants this year and $10 billion annually after that.
Ruchir Agarwal, Ms. Gita Gopinath, Jeremy Farrar, Richard Hatchett, and Peter Sands

Unequal Worldwide Average Daily Tests (per 1000 people) Source: FIND, Our World in Data, updated March 30, 2022 Note: Country borders or names do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official position. Ending the acute phase of this pandemic everywhere remains an essential priority, while we simultaneously evolve our global strategy to manage the long-term risks of COVID-19. Two emerging facts will influence how we inform these goals. First, as we go through the Omicron wave, much if not most of the world population is expected to be either vaccinated or to

Ruchir Agarwal, Ms. Gita Gopinath, Jeremy Farrar, Richard Hatchett, and Peter Sands

Copyright Page © 2022 International Monetary Fund WP/22/68 IMF Working Paper Research Department A Global Strategy to Manage the Long-Term Risks of COVID-19 Prepared by Ruchir Agarwal, Jeremy Farrar, Gita Gopinath, Richard Hatchett, and Peter Sands Authorized for distribution by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas April 2022 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate . The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent

Ruchir Agarwal and Ms. Gita Gopinath

III. References Agarwal , R. , and P. Gaule . 2022 . “ What Drives Innovation? Lessons from COVID-19 R&D .” Journal of Health Economics 102591 . Agarwal , R. , G. Gopinath , J. Farrar , R. Hatchett , and P. Sands . 2022 . “ A Global Strategy to Manage the Long-Term Risks of COVID-19 .” IMF Working Paper 2022(068) , International Monetary Fund , Washington, DC . Agarwal , R. , and G. Gopinath . 2021 . “ A Proposal to End the COVID-19 Pandemic .” IMF Staff Discussion Note 2021(004) , International

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

’ response has been gradual and the risks of COVID-19 are still evolving, further measures may be needed. In this regard, the authorities are requesting grants from donors. 5. Upcoming debt service . Burundi has eligible debt service of SDR 5.48 million falling due for the period from July 21 st to October 13, 2020. 1 Debt service falling due in the period from July 21 st , 2020 to April 13, 2022 (the maximum potential period of debt service relief, subject to availability of resources and decisions of the Executive Board) amounts to SDR 17.96 million. Table 1

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

the prolonged and severe drought, on-going security challenges, higher fuel and food prices, and the risk of COVID-19 resurgence due to very low vaccination rates. Nevertheless in the medium-term, GDP growth is projected at 4.1 percent supported by higher private investment, public spending, and on-going reforms. 5. Inflation recorded at 4.6 percent in 2021, is expected to accelerate to 8.5 percent in 2022, as food and energy prices continue to rise reflecting spillovers from the war in Ukraine alongside the prolonged and severe drought. Inflation is projected to

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Economic impact. COVID-19 is having an adverse economic impact on Burundi. The pandemic is affecting Burundi through an evolving domestic outbreak and economic spillovers from the global and regional environment, including from the containment measures introduced in trading partners and neighboring countries. Economic growth projections for 2020 have been revised down by 5.3 percentage points to -3.2 percent in 2020. The pandemic has exacerbated pre-existing economic challenges and creates an external financing need of 4.7 percent of GDP in 2020 and 2021, mainly as a result of lower exports in line with lower foreign demand due to lower global growth and transportation bottlenecks from containment measures in other countries; elevated imports needs related in part to the planned fiscal spending aimed at responding to the pandemic; and reduced remittances inflows. The pandemic has also created a fiscal financing need of 6.9 percent of GDP, which will need to be met mainly from external sources.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and World Bank
This joint IMF-World Bank note provides a set of high-level recommendations that can guide national regulatory and supervisory responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and offers an overview of measures taken across jurisdictions to date.