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Mr. Anthony J. Pellechio and Ms. Catharine Hill
Two methods of calculating the value-added tax (VAT) base, using production and consumption data, respectively, have been applied in different countries to estimate VAT revenue. It is not apparent that these methods should produce the same result for a particular country because each method requires different adjustments for exemptions. This paper establishes analytically the equivalence of the two methods. Both methods are applied to Zambia. Given the limitations of data, the two methods produce different results, yielding an estimated range for VAT revenue of 2-3 percent of GDP in 1995. Actual VAT revenue collected fell within this range.
Mr. Mikhail Golosov and Mr. John R King
Year-ahead forecasts of tax revenues incorporated into IMF programs for low-income countries, from 1993 to 1999, are compared with the corresponding outturns. The accuracy of these forecasts was low, with a mean absolute percentage error of 16 percent. Forecasts of tax revenues as a percentage of GDP were biased upwards, but there was no significant bias in forecasts of nominal tax revenues. Upward bias in the tax revenue forecasts was associated with subsequent interruptions to the program, and the length of time between the commencement of the program and the beginning of the year for which the forecast was made.
Ding Ding, Samira Kalla, Mr. Manuel Rosales Torres, and Abdoul Karim Sidibé

cross-country perspective (e.g., Chai and Goyal 2008 and Klemm and Parys 2012). In this section, we update the cross-country analysis on the economic impact of tax incentives in the Caribbean with the latest macroeconomic and tax incentive data (including forgone revenue estimations in the previous section). Because the ECCU countries compete with other tourism-based economies in the region for foreign investment, we expand the analysis to ten tourism-based Caribbean countries that include (in addition to the six independent ECCU countries) The Bahamas, Barbados

International Monetary Fund

the Australian Commonwealth Ministry of Finance. During 2005, the PFTAC PFM Advisor participated in a joint donor/government Feasibility Study related to a proposed long-term Financial and Economic Management Program (FEMP), as well as worked with the Ministry of Finance on assessing the financial implications of the proposed civil service wage increase. Since then assistance in the form of a peripatetic advisor has been provided in 2006, and again in 2007, to assist in revenue estimation work. The PFM Advisor has also delivered lectures on PFM to all CEOs, in late

International Monetary Fund

/government Feasibility Study related to a proposed long-term Financial and Economic Management Program (FEMP), as well as worked with the Ministry of Finance on assessing the financial implications of the proposed civil service wage increase. Since then assistance in the form of a peripatetic advisor has been provided in 2006, and again in 2007, to assist in revenue estimation work. The PFM Advisor has also delivered lectures on PFM to all CEOs, in late April 2007. A joint PFTAC mission on revenue estimation and Statistics is to visit Tonga in mid-March 2008 to further assist in these