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Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, Mr. Alex Segura-Ubiergo, and Enrique Flores
Some scholars have argued that direct distribution of natural resource revenues to the population would help resource-rich countries escape the “resource curse.” This discussion note analyzes whether this proposal is a viable policy alternative for resource-rich countries. The first priority for policymakers is to establish fiscal policy objectives to support macroeconomic stability and development objectives. In this regard, the establishment of an adequate fiscal framework that informs decisions on how much to save and invest, or how to smooth out revenue volatility, and deal with exhaustibility issues should precede any discussion of direct distribution of resource wealth to the population.
Ms. Maria A Albino, Ms. Svetlana Cerovic, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Mr. Juan C Flores, Mr. Javier Kapsoli, Mr. Haonan Qu, Mr. Yahia Said, Mr. Bahrom Shukurov, Mr. Martin Sommer, and Mr. SeokHyun Yoon
Over the past decade, rising oil prices have translated into high levels of public investment in most MENA and CCA oil exporters. This has prompted questions about the efficiency of public investment in generating growth and closing infrastructure gaps, as well as concerns about fiscal vulnerabilities. When public investment is inefficient, higher levels of spending may simply lead to larger budget deficits, without sufficiency increasing the quantity or quality of public infrastructure in support of economic growth. This paper examines the efficiency of public investment in the MENA and CCA oil exporters using several techniques, including a novel application of the efficiency frontier analysis, estimates of unit investment costs, and assessments of public investment processes. The analysis confirms that these oil exporters have substantial room to improve public investment efficiency. Reforms in the public financial and investment management systems are needed to achieve this objective.
Mr. Paolo Mauro, Mr. Herve Joly, Mr. Ari Aisen, Mr. Emre Alper, Mr. Francois Boutin-Dufresne, Mr. Jemma Dridi, Mr. Nikoloz Gigineishvili, Mr. Tom Josephs, Ms. Clara Mira, Mr. Vimal V Thakoor, Mr. Alun H. Thomas, and Mr. Fan Yang

. Alternative Scenarios B. Complete Probability Distribution of Shocks Chapter 2. Specific Risks A. Public Enterprises B. Large Infrastructure Projects C. Public-Private Partnerships D. Pensions Chapter 3. Institutional Sources of Fiscal Risks A. Quality, Timeliness, and Coverage of Reported Fiscal Data B. Expenditure Allocation and Control C. Oversight of Local Governments—Devolution D. Revenue Forecasting and Administration E. Risks Related to Natural Resource Wealth Management Conclusions References Boxes 2.1. Available Information on

Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, Mr. Alex Segura-Ubiergo, and Enrique Flores

their citizens face continued poverty with little prospect of a significant improvement in living conditions. Angola’s under-five infant mortality rate is a vivid example. In recent years, high commodity prices and new natural resource discoveries have increased many countries’ resource revenues, both as a share of the budget and in percent of GDP, offering new prospects for raising the population’s standard of living (see Chart 1 ). But few countries stand out as good examples of effective resource wealth management. Botswana, Chile, Norway, and the U.S. state of

Mr. Paolo Mauro, Hervé Joly, Mr. Ari Aisen, Mr. Emre Alper, Mr. Francois Boutin-Dufresne, Mr. Jemma Dridi, Mr. Nikoloz Gigineishvili, Mr. Tom Josephs, Ms. Clara Mira, Mr. Vimal V Thakoor, Mr. Alun H. Thomas, and Mr. Fan Yang

-than-expected fiscal costs if the enterprise runs into financial difficulties. This section highlights five areas of institutional weaknesses leading to fiscal risks in EAC partner states: (1) quality, timeliness, and coverage of reported fiscal data; (2) expenditure allocation and control; (3) oversight of subnational governments; (4) revenue forecasting and administration; and (5) risks related to natural resource wealth management. A. Quality, Timeliness, and Coverage of Reported Fiscal Data When financial data quality is low, governments risk making inappropriate fiscal

speculative capital inflows, increasing vulnerability in the financial sector. Fiscal reforms played an important role during this reform phase. The government initiated a comprehensive fiscal structural adjustment program, with large-scale expenditure cuts in the public sector and institutional reforms in the budget process. Tax reforms sought to lower the tax burden and incentivize private investment. A sound resource wealth management framework, with natural resource rents being invested in productive capital and saved abroad rather than being consumed, further

Mr. Paolo Mauro, Mr. Herve Joly, Mr. Ari Aisen, Mr. Emre Alper, Mr. Francois Boutin-Dufresne, Mr. Jemma Dridi, Mr. Nikoloz Gigineishvili, Mr. Tom Josephs, Ms. Clara Mira, Mr. Vimal V Thakoor, Mr. Alun H. Thomas, and Mr. Fan Yang
This paper takes stock of the main fiscal risks facing the EAC partner countries. These include macroeconomic shocks, and specific risks, such as the financial performance of the public enterprises, large infrastructure projects, PPPs, and pension funds. In addition, weaknesses in the institutional framework are reviewed. This analysis highlights some of the largest risks and begins to give a sense of the potential magnitudes involved.