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Mr. Alexei P Kireyev

Front Matter Page Policy Development and Review Department Authorized for distribution by Patricia Alonso-Gamo Contents I. Introduction II. Labor Migration and Remittances in Tajikistan A. Methodological Constraints B. The Magnitude of Remittances to Tajikistan C. Statistical Treatment III. The Macroeconomic Impact of Remittances A. Possible Theoretical Approaches B. The Contribution of Remittances to Development C. Policy Challenges of Remittances IV. Conclusions V. Appendix I. Possible Theoretical Treatment of

Mr. Alexei P Kireyev
The paper seeks to assess the macroeconomic implications of large-scale inward remittances for a small open economy. By including remittances in several standard models, the paper concludes that the overall macroeconomic impact of remittances is likely to be ambiguous. The impact depends on the structural characteristics of the receiving country, in particular its consumption and investment patterns, and its capacity to manage large financial inflows. As data deficiencies and methodological problems associated with remittances preclude crosscountry empirical investigation, the paper illustrates these findings with data on Tajikistan, where remittances as a share of GDP are among the highest in the world. The paper also evaluates the pros and cons of remittances in a broader political economy context.
Mr. Alexei P Kireyev

mainly of a theoretical treatment of remittances with some factual illustrations, and is organized as follows: Section II presents known facts about labor migration from, and remittances to, Tajikistan; Section III reviews a number of theoretical models and evaluates the pros and cons of remittances in this broader context; and Section IV provides conclusions. II. L abor M igration and R emittances in T ajikistan A. Methodological Constraints The overall understanding of migration and remittances is inadequate given the importance of this economic

International Monetary Fund

Transportation 330 Border crossing 30 Other 50 Variable expenses 945 Food 540 Accommodation 225 Police 135 Other 45 Remittance to Tajikistan 1,345 Source: WB survey of a typical seasonal worker staying in Russia 9 months at a time 3. The actual inflow of remittances may be substantially higher as amounts brought into Tajikistan outside of the banking system are largely unknown . At least two informal channels are used to remit migrant earnings to Tajikistan

Rocio Gondo, Altynai Aidarova, and Mr. Manmohan Singh

of remittances to Tajikistan are in rubles; to Uzbekistan, the opposite—80 percent are in U.S. dollars; to Kyrgyzstan, about 90 percent of remittances are ruble transfers. In January 2019, the Bank of Russia urged financial institutions to be more attentive to certain money transfer transactions and ensured that they are transferred through the appropriate money transfer system. Personal monthly transfer limits were set to not exceed 150.000 rubles for Kazakhstan and 100,000 rubles for the Kyrgyz Republic, China, and Vietnam. This measure was aimed at decreasing

Rocio Gondo, Altynai Aidarova, and Mr. Manmohan Singh
This paper discusses migration and remittances trends, and calculates the natural (or benchmark) level of dollarization in Caucasus, Central Asia and others in the region. This natural level of dollarization is conceptually linked to the currency allocation in a portfolio of deposits to maximize welfare, in line with Ize and Levy Yeyati (2003). The fall in remittances due to the economic slowdown since the spread of COVID-19 affects the macroeconomic fundamentals that determine demand for foreign currency deposits. We calculate the natural dollarization level by integrating structural macroeconomic characteristics. We show that despite the reduction in deposit dollarization, there is still a gap with respect to the natural level of dollarization, especially in a scenario of (persistent) lower remittance inflows.
International Monetary Fund

, contributed to this growth. Figure 1. Remittances and Trade Deficit Sources: National authorities; and staff estimates. 1/ Data net of 250 mln. of debt-equity swap with Russia. Recorded remittances to Tajikistan are among the highest in the world as a percentage of GDP ( Figure 2 ). By supporting consumption and expenditure on health and education, remittances have contributed to growth and poverty reduction. So far, there has been no evidence of appreciation pressure via either a rapid accumulation of reserves or nominal appreciation. Three factors likely

International Monetary Fund

percent of GDP), and remittances to Tajikistan (2 percent of GDP). In addition, subsidiaries of Kazakhstani banks are present in these countries. Kazakhstan: External Spillovers Policy Discussions D. Financial Sector: Resolving Bank Asset Weaknesses 14. The authorities have developed a new mechanism to deal with impaired bank loans, but its implementation has been slow . The strategy combines a centralized problem loans fund established and funded by the NBK and other investors (including pension funds and banks) and bank-run Special Purpose

International Monetary Fund
This 2012 Article IV Consultation reports that fiscal and monetary policies have adapted to the economic recovery in the Republic of Kazakhstan. The authorities have appropriately responded to the upswing in the cycle by gradually tightening fiscal policy and sterilizing excess bank liquidity. Directors have commended the authorities’ policies that, together with high commodity prices, yielded a strong economic recovery. Directors have also appreciated the preparation of plans to deal with a possible protracted global slowdown and a decline in oil prices.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the sources of recent growth in Tajikistan. It concludes that economic growth has been mainly driven by the services sector and a surge in remittances that have been mainly used for private consumption and small-scale private investment. The paper summarizes the recently introduced revisions to the Tax Code, which are an evolutionary step in simplifying the tax system and setting the base for better revenue administration. It also examines the likely impact on households of increasing electricity prices to cost-recovery levels.