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Aleksandra Babii, Ms. Alina Carare, Dmitry Vasilyev, and Mr. Yorbol Yakhshilikov
Traditional models relying on standard variables like the U.S. Hispanic unemployment rate fared well in explaining remittances to CAPDR and Mexico during the pre-pandemic period. However, they fail to predict the sustained growth in remittances since June 2020, including the significant increase in the average amount remitted. Using data from over 300 remittances corridors (from 23 U.S. states to 14 Salvadoran departments), we find that this increase is primarily explained by the dynamics of U.S. states real wages, as well as more temporary factors like U.S. unemployment relief (including the extraordinary pandemic support), U.S. states mobility, and COVID-19 infections at home. The paper also analyses what role the change in the modes of transmission of remittances, additional U.S. fiscal stimulus and U.S. labor market developments, especially in the sectors were CAPDR and Mexican migrants preponderantly work, play in explaining aggregate remittances growth.
Aleksandra Babii, Ms. Alina Carare, Dmitry Vasilyev, and Mr. Yorbol Yakhshilikov

, section III presents stylized facts on the evolution of aggregate remittances to CAPDR countries. Section IV applies the traditional empirical model of the evolution of remittances to CAPDR countries, through two methods, while section V examines the evolution of aggregate remittances through the prism of volume and value effects. Section VI analyses the drivers of average value of remittances sent by an average Salvadoran migrant in the U.S. states to Salvadoran departments. Section VII discusses policy implications and concludes. II. Literature Review The

Shinya Kotera and Jochen M. Schmittmann

This paper investigates labor market dynamics in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic drawing on macro and micro data. The pandemic and related containment measures had a large negative impact on employment, labor force participation, earnings, and labor market mobility, although policy support through furlough schemes partially mitigated the rise in unemployment. Our results indicate that industry effects were a crucial driver of labor market outcomes for different groups of employees — women, younger age groups, nonregular, self-employed, and low-income workers accounted for a disproportional share of employment in the hardest hit industries. We also find empirical evidence for the need to improve childcare and related support, training and upskilling offerings, and teleworking availability, and the role of skill mismatches in reducing labor market mobility and resource reallocation.

Aleksandra Babii, Ms. Alina Carare, Dmitry Vasilyev, and Mr. Yorbol Yakhshilikov

Copyright Page © 2022 International Monetary Fund WP/22/92 IMF Working Paper Western Hemisphere Department Evolution of Remittances to CAPDR Countries and Mexico During the COVID-19 Pandemic Prepared by Aleksandra Babii, Alina Carare, Dmitry Vasilyev, and Yorbol Yakhshilikov 1 Authorized for distribution by Manuela Goretti May 2022 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate . The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not