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Mr. David A. Grigorian and Mr. Maxym Kryshko

Remittances play an important role in Tajikistan. In 2014, the economy received an estimated $4 billion in remittances, equivalent to 42 percent of GDP, the largest share among all remittance-receiving countries in the world. A lion share of remittances (up to 90 percent in volume) are received from Russia, followed by Kazakhstan and Belarus. 7 However, perhaps contrary to the common belief, the 2014 Russian crisis demonstrated that remittances are not robust and can fluctuate significantly: in 2015, remittances from Russia declined by an estimated 25 percent year

Jaime Espinosa-Bowen, Mr. Nadeem Ilahi, and Fahad Alturki
We test the extent to which growth in the 11 CIS countries (excluding Russia) was associated with developments in Russia, overall, as well as through the trade, financial and remittance channels over the last decade or so. The results point to the continued existence of economic links between the CIS countries and Russia, though these links may have altered since the 1998 crisis. Russia appears to influence regional growth mainly through the remittance channel and somewhat less so through the financial channel. There is a shrinking role of the trade (exports to Russia) channel. Russian growth shocks are associated with sizable effects on Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and, to some extent, Georgia.
Mr. Garbis Iradian

. Estimation Results, Transition Sample, with Annual Data Panel Figures 1. Investment, 1996–2006 2. Terms of Trade, 1999–2006 3. Highly Skilled Expatriates in the OECD 4. Transfers and Remittances from Russia, 1994-2006

Jaime Espinosa-Bowen, Mr. Nadeem Ilahi, and Fahad Alturki

Countries—Remittances 7. Determinants of GDP Growth in CIS Countries—Combined 8. Forecast Error Variance Decompositions of Growth in CIS Figures 1. Average Share of CIS Countries’ Exports to Russia and Europe 2. Ratio of Remittances from Russia and Europe to GDP of Non-Russian CIS Countries 3. Outflow of Remittances from Russia 4. Russia and CIS: The Crisis of 1998 5. Growth in CIS Countries, Russia, and Euro Area 6. Russian Current Account Balance, NIF, and CIS Growth 7. Impact of Russian Growth on Growth in CIS Countries: Effects by Country 8

Jaime Espinosa-Bowen, Mr. Nadeem Ilahi, and Fahad Alturki

Figure 1. Average share of CIS countries’ exports to Russia and Europe, in percent Source: National authorities; and IMF staff calculations. Figure 2. Ratio of remittances from Russia and Europe to GDP of non-Russian CIS countries, in percent Figure 3. Outflow of Remittances 1/ from Russia (In billions of U.S. dollars) To the extent that there was unprecedented growth in CIS countries over the last decade when Russia experienced a large oil-led boom, a relevant question to ask is if the latter spilled over to the former and if so, then