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Alessia De Stefani, Athene Laws, and Alexandre Sollaci

responding to shocks. B. Baseline distribution of vulnerabilities and resilience in Nepal We now turn to identifying vulnerability at the household level to shocks and insurance mechanisms that mitigate impacts. Equation 1 displays the core specification. Household i’s outcome in time t is regressed on the number of shocks faces and a vector X it of time varying household characteristics. 16 Variables capturing potential coping strategies, such as remittance receipt, government support receipt and access to savings/credit are included as required. Outcomes are

Mr. Ralph Chami, Mr. Adolfo Barajas, Mr. Peter J Montiel, and Ms. Dalia S Hakura
This paper investigates the impact of workers’ remittances on equilibrium real exchange rates (ERER) in recipient economies. Using a small open economy model, it shows that standard "Dutch Disease" results of appreciation are substantially weakened or even overturned depending on: degree of openness; factor mobility between domestic sectors; counter cyclicality of remittances; the share of consumption in tradables; and the sensitivity of a country’s risk premium to remittance flows. Panel cointegration techniques on a large set of countries provide support for these analytical results, and show that ERER appreciation in response to sustained remittance flows tends to be quantitatively small.
Mr. Ralph Chami, Ernst Ekkehard, Connel Fullenkamp, and Anne Oeking

to have multiple significant impacts on the economies of remittance-receiving countries. For example, much attention has been paid to the goods market consequences of remittance receipt, such as the potential “Dutch disease” effects of remittances( Acosta et al ., 2009 ; Barajas et al ., 2011 ). Likewise, there are good reasons to expect that remittance inflows would have important consequences for a country’s labor market. First, remittances constitute an important source of income for millions of families around the world, lifting many of them out of poverty

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

investment. However, in column (2) our results highlight a positive and very significant impact of remittances inflows on appreciation of the real effective exchange rate in Kyrgyz Republic supporting the idea the higher flows of remittances receipt could generate Dutch disease effects. A careful analysis of the impact of remittances on tradable industries in the manufacturing sector would however be necessary to confirm these preliminary findings. D. Policy implications and recommendations 10. The results of our empirical analysis suggest that a higher

International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper on Samoa reports that remittances are the main source of foreign exchange to the Samoan economy. In addition to remittances, travel credits also play an important role in the economy. Official transfers are also significant, and should remain an important source of balance-of-payments support over the medium term. Remittances are relatively more stable when measured in the remitting country’s currency compared with talas. Remittance receipts account for a similar share of income across different household income groups, except for the richest one.
Mr. Serdar Sayan
Workers' remittances are often argued to have a tendency to move countercyclically with the GDP in recipient countries since migrant workers are expected to remit more during down cycles of economic activity back home. Yet, how much to remit is a complex decision involving other factors, and different variables driving remittance behavior are differently affected by the state of economic activity over the business cycle. This paper investigates the behavior of workers' remittances flows into 12 developing countries over their respective business cycles during 1976-2003 and finds that countercyclicality of receipts is not commonly observed across these countries.