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Mr. Tamim Bayoumi, Mr. Saad N Quayyum, and Sibabrata Das
The paper analyzes the impact of natural disasters on per-capita GDP growth. Using a quantile regressions and growth-at-risk approach, the paper examines the impact of disasters and policy choices on the distribution of growth rather than simply its average. We find that countries that have in place disaster preparedness mechanisms and lower public debt have lower probability of witnessing a significant drop in growth as a consequence of a natural disaster, but our innovative methodology in this paper finds that the two policies are complements since their effectiveness vary across different disaster scenarios. While both are helpful for small to mid-size disasters, lower debt—and hence more fiscal space—is more beneficial in the face of very large disasters. A balanced strategy would thus involve both policies.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

. Finally, the asymptotic properties of the quantile regression estimator are well-known and easy to derive. Parametric Fit of the Conditional Distribution of Future GDP Growth The conditional quantiles are sufficient statistics for describing the full conditional cumulative distribution function (CDF). From the CDF, we derive the probability distribution function using a parametric method to fit the conditional quantiles for the sake of robustness with regards to quantiles crossing and extreme quantiles estimation. Following Adrian and others (2016), a

Emmanouil Kitsios, João Tovar Jalles, and Ms. Genevieve Verdier

, suggesting a lower incidence of trade fraud when governments make progress in digitalization. 15 Table 2. Trade Gap Regressions Using Intra-EU Trade Data Specification (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Regressors/estimator OLS TSLS-1a TSLS-1b TSLS-2 TSLS-2 Im.Digitalization index 0.041 (0.041) 0.893** (0.350) 0.936*** (0.341) Ex.Digitalization index 0.073 (0.047) 0.599 (0.365) 0.598* (0.352) Im.R&D efficiency 0.057*** (0.004) 0.000 (0.006) Ex.R&D efficiency 0.000 (0

Emmanouil Kitsios, João Tovar Jalles, and Ms. Genevieve Verdier
How can governments reduce the prevalence of cross-border tax fraud? This paper argues that the use of digital technologies offers an opportunity to reduce fraud and increase government revenue. Using data on intra-EU and world trade transactions, we present evidence that (i) cross-border trade tax fraud is non-trivial and prevalent in many countries; (ii) such fraud can be alleviated by the use of digital technologies at the border; and (iii) potential revenue gains of digitalization from reducing trade fraud could be substantial. Halving the distance to the digitalization frontier could raise revenues by over 1.5 percent of GDP in low-income developing countries.