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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Reforms 4. In order to signal their commitment to fiscal discipline, the authorities are committed to putting in place a budget for 2014 aimed at balancing essential spending needs with stability goals. 5. The fiscal impact of the Syrian crisis is extensive. The negative impact on investor and consumer confidence and the disruption in the trade routes for exports and imports of goods, tourism, and financial services are placing downward pressure on government revenues. Combined with rising demand for public services due to the large refugee influx, this is further

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

.00 per printed copy International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. ©2014 International Monetary Fund Front Matter Page LEBANON SELECTED ISSUES June 12, 2014 Approved By Middle East and Central Asia Department Prepared by Mariusz Jarmuzek (FAD), and Najla Nakhle and Francisco Parodi (MCD). These Selected Issues Papers have benefitted from discussions with staff from the Banque du Liban and Ministry of Finance. Contents THE IMPACT OF THE SYRIAN CONFLICT ON LEBANON A. Introduction B. The Refugee Influx C. The

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

The Impact of the Syrian Conflict on Lebanon 1 The conflict in Syria is having wide-ranging effects on Lebanon. The refugee influx is unprecedented, stoking sectarian tensions, exacerbating already-precarious security conditions, and straining the economy. The paper analyzes the various transmission channels of the Syrian crisis—though quantification is hampered by the lack of reliable data — with particular focus on the impact on fiscal performance and labor markets; it also takes stock of international donor efforts to date. Absent additional

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

between the asylum application and the work permit granted to refugees from 9 to 6 months, in order to allow them to enter the labor market more quickly. Lastly, while it successfully managed to cope so far with the refugee influx, thanks also to the sound fiscal position, any renewed strong influx of refugees would likely put pressure on the country’s capacity to host.

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the various transmission channels of the Syrian crisis—though quantification is hampered by the lack of reliable data—with focus on the impact on fiscal performance and labor markets; it also takes stock of international donor efforts to date. The paper also provides overviews of main effects on Lebanon’s economy, the expenditure pressures associated with the refugee presence, the impact on poverty and inequality, and the added strains on labor markets. A section of the paper describes the response by the international community to help Lebanon cope with the Syrian crisis. Absent additional international support, the needs of both refugees and affected Lebanese communities will not be met. Sound government policies—including implementation of a concerted policy framework to deal with refugee issues and a commitment to fiscal discipline—will send credible signals to donors and help mobilize budget support. Tackling the unprecedented refugee crisis requires strong international support. There has been a large international humanitarian response, but much more is needed.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents the overview of the Dutch economy. After a double-dip recession that ended in early 2014, a strengthening but moderate recovery led by exports and investment is underway, although lower production and exports of natural reduced gas reduced growth in the second quarter of 2015, without however interrupting its momentum. Unemployment is falling slowly and inflation is low, but positive. Credit has continued to decline, but demand for credit is gradually rebounding. The Dutch banking system is emerging from its restructuring. The economy now appears set on a gradual path of recovery, and growth is expected to reach 1.9 percent this year and in 2015, supported by an improving domestic demand.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper studies the two vital issues of Luxembourg’s economy: investment IMF-World Bank linkages and lessons and challenges in accommodating migrants and refugees. The Luxembourg investment fund industry, second in the world after the United States, has grown rapidly since the global financial crisis. Risks in investment funds are attracting global attention, and the linkages between Luxembourg funds and banks could contribute to transmitting financial volatility to the financial system and the real economy. Past experience of handling migration flows and a positive public attitude have helped the authorities to mobilize resources for accommodating sharply rising refugee inflows from mid-2015.