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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper studies the two vital issues of Luxembourg’s economy: investment IMF-World Bank linkages and lessons and challenges in accommodating migrants and refugees. The Luxembourg investment fund industry, second in the world after the United States, has grown rapidly since the global financial crisis. Risks in investment funds are attracting global attention, and the linkages between Luxembourg funds and banks could contribute to transmitting financial volatility to the financial system and the real economy. Past experience of handling migration flows and a positive public attitude have helped the authorities to mobilize resources for accommodating sharply rising refugee inflows from mid-2015.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

affected by the commodity price decline, including for coffee, Uganda’s largest export commodity. Security concerns in the region have also impacted sentiment, and more recently, the South Sudan crisis has led to a decline in Ugandan exports and remittances, and an exponential increase in refugee arrivals. Droughts have affected the economy and triggered a spike in food prices in 2013 and more recently in 2016-17. Reduced development partners’ aid budgets as the 2013 PSI started also spurred domestic borrowing requirements. 10 5. Rebasing led to an upwards revision in

Nicolo Bird and Mr. David Amaglobeli

children settling in Poland over the upcoming months and the marginal cost of education for Ukrainian refugees. 10 In Estonia, refugees fleeing Ukraine can apply for health insurance coverage that is available to the local population. 11 These estimates are based on refugee arrival data as of July 26, 2022, and are likely to increase. The estimates do not account for the specific needs of refugees, which are likely higher. Moreover, health expenditure increases over age, meaning that expenditure will be significantly lower for children and higher among

Nicolo Bird and Mr. David Amaglobeli
Refugees from Ukraine face multiple vulnerabilities, with many requiring humanitarian assistance to meet basic needs. In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, host countries in Europe and beyond have adopted measures to support refugees, including residency rights, free movement across countries, access to labor markets and integration policies, health and education services, housing options, banking services, and social protection systems. Drawing on previous IMF work on the economic challenges of refugees, this note provides an overview of policy responses needed to provide effective support to refugees fleeing Ukraine.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

same social benefits and access to the labor market as native residents. In Estonia, refugee arrivals are expected to increase labor supply and ease labor shortages in certain sectors. The net fiscal contribution of refugees is expected to be negative in the near term, though integration of a relatively young population could be beneficial in the long run. Active labor market policies and other support measures (e.g., language training, skills recognition, childcare) could support high-quality integration and deliver a high fiscal return. 2 A. Recent Developments

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

, Luxembourg also remains vulnerable to lower-than-expected growth in Europe. This highlights the need for Luxembourg to diversify its services exports away from Europe and boost competitiveness, especially of non-financial sectors. In addition, another surge in refugee arrivals could put strain on Luxembourg’s capacity to accommodate and integrate them. 13. Banks’ exposure to the real estate market is a risk to watch closely . Rising house prices largely reflect strong demand outstripping supply, partly because of supply bottlenecks and zoning regulations. For the handful

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Estonia’s economy is vulnerable to the fallout from the war in Ukraine given its geographical proximity to Russia, the geopolitical context, and high passthrough from global energy prices to domestic inflation. Although direct exposures to Russia and Ukraine through trade, services, and financial channels appear to be contained, the war is already significantly affecting economic confidence. Nevertheless, economic activity has progressively adapted to the pandemic, rebounding strongly in 2021, and as of mid-2022, remaining resilient to the headwinds from the war. Inflation has surged into double digits and is increasingly broad-based.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents the overview of the Dutch economy. After a double-dip recession that ended in early 2014, a strengthening but moderate recovery led by exports and investment is underway, although lower production and exports of natural reduced gas reduced growth in the second quarter of 2015, without however interrupting its momentum. Unemployment is falling slowly and inflation is low, but positive. Credit has continued to decline, but demand for credit is gradually rebounding. The Dutch banking system is emerging from its restructuring. The economy now appears set on a gradual path of recovery, and growth is expected to reach 1.9 percent this year and in 2015, supported by an improving domestic demand.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

, and many more are expected to fee. In the short term, refugee arrivals will strain local services, including for shelter and health care. In the longer term, the dispersion of a large number of refugees across the European Union will have important social and economic effects, increasing labor supply but potentially exacerbating anti-immigrant sentiment. Policy responses : The international economic transmission of the war and sanctions will also depend on policies in countries not directly involved. Decisions to increase oil and gas supply or release energy

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses growth prospects and downside risks of Luxembourg’s economy. Luxembourg’s small open economy plays a pivotal role in intermediating global capital flows. Deep-rooted traditions of fiscal prudence, business-friendly regulation, a skilled labor force, and low and predictable taxes have made Luxembourg a global financial center, home of multinational companies, and one of the richest countries in the European Union (EU). However, financial market stress could affect Luxembourg’s performance. In case of severe external shocks, unraveling financial exposures could prompt dislocations in markets or institutions beyond the scope of the national authorities. The European Banking Union and EU financial regulations frameworks are particularly positive for Luxembourg.