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International Monetary Fund

around 1½–3½ per cent of GDP lower in FY2009/10 than would have been the case in the absence of the tsunami. There is also likely to be an impact on tourism in FY2010/11, with the sector expected to return to full capacity from late 2011. Over the longer-term, the loss in GDP might be as much as five percentage points. This takes account of the fact that recovery spending will provide a significant boost to economic activity, counteracting some of the loss in earnings. Staff expect GDP to fall around 3 per cent in the current fiscal year before growing at around 3

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

and reforms to support recovery while containing expansion of public debt. They recommended containing current spending extraneous to recovery, and enhancing the efficiency of capital investment while protecting critical social and recovery spending. Given Dominica’s vulnerability to natural disasters, directors noted that investment in resilient infrastructure was appropriate, despite its higher cost. They encouraged the authorities to create a savings fund for natural disasters. Once output recovers, directors recommend fiscal consolidation to sustain

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that in 2018, Dominica’s output is projected to decline by 14 percent and to take about 5 years to recover to pre-hurricane levels. The fall in output and government revenue, coupled with increased expenditure for rehabilitation and reconstruction, will lead to a substantial worsening of fiscal and external deficits. However, signs of recovery, particularly in construction and the public sector, have already started to emerge. The risks to the outlook include the budget becoming financially constrained and unable to sustain adequate investment given high debt, limited buffers, weak revenue, and urgent needs for reconstruction spending. Other risks include financial instability stemming from undercapitalization of systemic financial institutions, recurrent natural disasters, and external competitiveness challenges.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the macroeconomic outlook for Tuvalu is stable. Real GDP growth in 2015 is estimated at 2.6 percent and is projected to rise to 4 percent in 2016 owing to several large infrastructure projects and recovery spending following Cyclone Pam. Inflation remained steady in 2015 at 3.2 percent. The fiscal position is expected to turn into a small deficit in 2016 and is projected to remain in deficit over the medium term. Risks to the outlook relate to the effects of climate change, volatility in fishing revenues, and volatile global financial conditions, which could affect distributions to the budget from the Tuvalu Trust Fund.