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Andrea Deghi, Mr. Fabio M Natalucci, and Mahvash S Qureshi
After dropping sharply in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, commercial real estate prices are on the mend. However, the initial price decline, as well as the pace of recovery, vary widely across regions and different segments of the commercial real estate market. This note analyzes the factors that explain this divergence using city-level data from major advanced and emerging market economies. The findings show that pandemic-specific factors such as the stringency of containment measures and the spread of the virus are strongly associated with a decline in prices, while fiscal support and easy financial conditions maintained by central banks have helped to cushion the shock. A higher vaccination rate has aided the recovery of the sector, especially in the retail segment. Structural changes in private behavior such as the trend toward teleworking and e-commerce have also had an impact on commercial property prices in some segments. The outlook of the sector across regions thus remains closely tied to the trajectory of the pandemic and broader macroeconomic recovery, financial market conditions, and the pace of structural shifts in the demand for specific property types. In an environment of tightening financial conditions and a slowdown in economic activity, continued vigilance is warranted on the part of financial supervisors to minimize financial stability risks stemming from potential adverse shocks to the sector.
Andrea Deghi, Mr. Fabio M Natalucci, and Mahvash S Qureshi

After dropping sharply in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, commercial real estate prices are on the mend. However, the initial price decline, as well as the pace of recovery, vary widely across regions and different segments of the commercial real estate market. This note analyzes the factors that explain this divergence using city-level data from major advanced and emerging market economies. The findings show that pandemic-specific factors such as the stringency of containment measures and the spread of the virus are strongly associated with a decline in prices, while fiscal support and easy financial conditions maintained by central banks have helped to cushion the shock. A higher vaccination rate has aided the recovery of the sector, especially in the retail segment. Structural changes in private behavior such as the trend toward teleworking and e-commerce have also had an impact on commercial property prices in some segments. The outlook of the sector across regions thus remains closely tied to the trajectory of the pandemic and broader macroeconomic recovery, financial market conditions, and the pace of structural shifts in the demand for specific property types. In an environment of tightening financial conditions and a slowdown in economic activity, continued vigilance is warranted on the part of financial supervisors to minimize financial stability risks stemming from potential adverse shocks to the sector.

Andrea Deghi, Mr. Fabio M Natalucci, and Mahvash S Qureshi

advanced and emerging market economies. The findings show that pandemic-specific factors such as the stringency of containment measures and the spread of the virus are strongly associated with a decline in prices, while fiscal support and easy financial conditions maintained by central banks have helped to cushion the shock. A higher vaccination rate has aided the recovery of the sector, especially in the retail segment. Structural changes in private behavior such as the trend toward teleworking and e-commerce have also had an impact on commercial property prices in some

International Monetary Fund

-based recovery of the sector remains unlikely. Outlook and risks . The recovery of the nonhydrocarbon economy, however, looks set to continue this year, backed by strong trade, tourism, logistics, and manufacturing, and helped by high oil prices. With limited near-term potential for further increases in real oil production, overall GDP growth is expected to moderate to 2.3 percent. Downside risks relate to a possible increase in regional geopolitical tensions, a potential decline in oil prices, a renewed worsening of global financial conditions, or a marked slowdown in Asia

Adam Behsudi

uncertainties surrounding the recovery of the sector, innovative structural policies will be necessary to adapt to the new normal.” All over the world, tourism-dependent economies are working to finance a broad range of policy measures to soften the impact of plummeting tourism revenues on households and businesses. Cash transfers, grants, tax relief, payroll support, and loan guarantees have been deployed. Banks have also halted loan repayments in some cases. Some countries have focused support on informal workers, who tend to be concentrated in the tourism sector and are

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

participating households in selected project areas and laying the foundation of the recovery of the sector; iv) Additional Financing Local Governance and Service Delivery (US$52 million) ;and the Safety Net and Skills Development Project Additional Financing(US$30 million) An extensive analytical work and technical assistance is complementing the Bank’s lending activities. African Development Bank Operations The African Development Bank Group’s first strategy for South Sudan was laid down in the Interim Country Strategy Paper (I-CSP) 2012-2014 approved by the Boards

International Monetary Fund

appropriate, but the legal and regulatory framework should be strengthened and political consensus sought to provide adequate conditions for private sector participation in the industry. Strategic actions under this CDS should focus, in the short term, on securing financial recovery of the sector (financial viability, improved efficiency corporate governance) and laying the foundation for its longer-term growth. 14. Staffs welcome the analysis of mining sector problems and the recognition that the intrusive legal and tax frameworks impose an excessive regulatory burden

International Monetary Fund
This Joint Staff Advisory Note (JSAN) highlights the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper–Country Development Strategy (PRSP–CDS) for the Kyrgyz Republic for 2007–10. The Kyrgyz authorities’ CDS for 2007–10 builds on the policy experience from the National Poverty Reduction Strategy (NPRS). This JSAN provides advice on key priorities for strengthening the strategy and promoting the effective implementation of CDS. It reviews poverty trends, macroeconomic and sectoral policies in support of the strategy, and the mechanisms for monitoring and evaluating progress.