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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa is facing an unprecedented health and economic crisis that threatens to throw the region off its stride, reversing the encouraging development progress of recent years. Furthermore, by exacting a heavy human toll, upending livelihoods, and damaging business and government balance sheets, the crisis threatens to retard the region’s growth prospects in the years to come. Previous crises tended to impact affect countries in the region differentially, but no country will be spared this time.

Mr. Abebe Aemro Selassie

-regulated telecommunications sector that charges competitive and accessible prices to consumers. Managing climate change risks Climate change poses a great threat to many countries in the region. Impacts vary across countries: some are facing droughts; others rising sea levels, cyclones, and floods; and most are dealing with rising temperatures and rainfall anomalies. But one thing sub-Saharan African countries have in common is limited climate resilience and coping mechanisms, along with reliance on rain-fed agriculture. Consequently, climate change is weighing on economic activity

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

subsequent rise in rainfall anomalies in the Republic of Congo (Congo) are hurting crop nutrient content, yields, livestock, fisheries, biodiversity, and land use. The situation is compounded by an increased frequency and intensity of flooding. Historically, Congo experienced occasional flooding but since 2019 it has become a regular phenomenon with severe consequences. For example, during 2000-18, an annual average of 7,000 people suffered but the severe flooding in 2019 and 2020 affected 100,000-160,000 people in the North. Immediate emergency assistance, mostly provided

Mr. Rodolfo Maino and Drilona Emrullahu

Global Carbon Project data for the CO2 emissions; Climate Watch Database for the GHG emissions and Penn World Tables for the Real GDP data. (Note: BDI=Burundi; CAF=Central African Republic; TCD=Chad; COM=Comoros; CIV= Côte d’Ivoire; COD=Democratic Republic of the Congo; GIN=Guinea; GNB=Guinea-Bissau; LBR=Liberia; MDG=Madagascar; MWI=Malawi; MLI=Mali; COG=Republic of Congo; STP =Saõ Tomé and Príncipe; SLE=Sierra Leone; GMB=The Gambia; TGO=Togo; ZWE=Zimbabwe) Rising temperatures along with rising sea levels and rainfall anomalies have translated into an

Mr. Rodolfo Maino and Drilona Emrullahu
Fragile states in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) face challenges to respond to the effects of climate shocks and rising temperatures. Fragility is linked to structural weaknesses, government failure, and lack of institutional basic functions. Against this setup, climate change could add to risks. A panel fixed effects model (1980 to 2019) found that the effect of a 1◦C rise in temperature decreases income per capita growth in fragile states in SSA by 1.8 percentage points. Panel quantile regression models that account for unobserved individual heterogeneity and distributional heterogeneity, corroborate that the effects of higher temperature on income per capita growth are negative while the impact of income per capita growth on carbon emissions growth is heterogeneous, indicating that higher income per capita growth could help reduce carbon emissions growth for high-emitter countries. These findings tend to support the hypothesis behind the Environmental Kuznets Curve and the energy consumption growth literature, which postulates that as income increases, emissions increase pari passu until a threshold level of income where emissions start to decline.
Mr. Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia, Mr. Ermal Hitaj, Mr. Montfort Mlachila, Arina Viseth, and Mustafa Yenice

of Africa to estimate the determinants of net out-migration rates. They find that wage gaps and demographic booms in the sending country are the main explanatory factors. Among the few studies that look at intraregional migration in SSA, some focus on rural-urban migration. For instance, Barrios, Bertinelli, and Strobl (2006) emphasize the role of a general decline in rainfall in SSA since the 1960s as an important factor in migration toward urban centers. Meanwhile, Marchiori, Maystadt, and Schumacher (2012) investigate the role of temperature and rainfall

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

human beings, raising their vulnerability to viruses and other diseases. Sub-Saharan Africa is the region in the world most vulnerable to climate change. Rising temperatures, rising sea levels, and rainfall anomalies are increasing the frequency and intensity of natural disasters and are markedly transforming the region’s geography ( Figure 2.1 ; IPCC 2018 ; October 2017 World Economic Outlook , Chapter 3 ). Recent natural disasters include the devastating cyclones Idai and Kenneth; ongoing locust outbreaks in eastern Africa and droughts in southern and eastern

Mr. Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia, Mr. Ermal Hitaj, Mr. Montfort Mlachila, Arina Viseth, and Mustafa Yenice
Amid rapid population growth, migration in sub-Saharan Africa has been increasing briskly over the last 20 years. Up to the 1990s, the stock of migrants—citizens of one country living in another country—was dominated by intraregional migration, but over the last 15 years, migration outside the region has picked up sharply. In the coming decades, sub-Saharan African migration will be shaped by an ongoing demographic transition involving an enlargement of the working-age population, and migration outside the region, in particular to advanced economies, is set to continue expanding. This note explores the main drivers of sub-Saharan African migration, focusing on migration outside the region, as this has greater global spillovers. It finds that the economic impact of migration for the region occurs mainly through two channels. First, the migration of young and educated workers—brain drain—takes a toll as human capital is already scarce in the region, although some recent studies suggest that migration may have also a positive effect—brain gain. Second, remittances represent an important source of foreign exchange and income in a number of sub-Saharan African countries, contribute to the alleviation of poverty, and help smooth business cycles.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper takes stock of Seychelles’ plans to manage climate change, from the perspective of its macroeconomic implications. It suggests macro-relevant reforms that could strengthen the plans’ likelihood of success. It highlights high public awareness and a body of existing sustainable development planning, which puts Seychelles several steps ahead toward preparedness. Next steps would be to ensure that climate change planning is integrated with the forthcoming National Development Plan. Disaster preparedness is a relatively strong point, but there is much still to be done—from improving warning systems to resilience building to contingency financing.