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Mr. Michael Gorbanyov, Majid Malaika, and Tahsin Saadi Sedik

“ I cannot seriously believe in it [...] physics should represent a reality in time and space, free from spooky action at a distance. ” Albert Einstein 2 I. Introduction The quantum revolution is underway, with the pace of innovations accelerating in recent years. The most notable and much discussed example of quantum technology is quantum computing—the use of quantum physics to perform calculations that are intractable for even the most powerful current and future classical supercomputers. 3 Leading technological companies have already developed

Mr. Michael Gorbanyov, Majid Malaika, and Tahsin Saadi Sedik
The era of quantum computing is about to begin, with profound implications for the global economy and the financial system. Rapid development of quantum computing brings both benefits and risks. Quantum computers can revolutionize industries and fields that require significant computing power, including modeling financial markets, designing new effective medicines and vaccines, and empowering artificial intelligence, as well as creating a new and secure way of communication (quantum Internet). But they would also crack many of the current encryption algorithms and threaten financial stability by compromising the security of mobile banking, e-commerce, fintech, digital currencies, and Internet information exchange. While the work on quantum-safe encryption is still in progress, financial institutions should take steps now to prepare for the cryptographic transition, by assessing future and retroactive risks from quantum computers, taking an inventory of their cryptographic algorithms (especially public keys), and building cryptographic agility to improve the overall cybersecurity resilience.
Devi Sridhar

computer algorithms. Yet these hitherto impenetrable cryptographic codes could soon be history. Quantum computers can reach a level of optimization that would crack many of today’s encryption keys in less time than it takes to generate them using conventional digital computers. Financial institutions should future-proof their cybersecurity systems without delay. Failure to do so will imperil financial stability. A quantum revolution Quantum computing is the use of quantum phenomena such as superposition and entanglement to perform computations. The basic unit

Mr. Michael Gorbanyov, Majid Malaika, and Tahsin Saadi Sedik

Front Matter Page Asia and Pacific Department Table of Contents I. Introduction II. What is Quantum Computing? III. Potential Benefits of Quantum Computing IV. Potential Risks of Quantum Computing V. The Way Forward Annex I. Glossary of Technical Terms Used in the Paper Annex II. A Brief History of Encryption, Cryptoanalysis and Digital Computers Annex III. Modern Cryptographic Algorithms and Their Vulnerabilities to Current Technologies Annex IV. Main Cryptographic Algorithms References

International Monetary Fund. Communications Department

Century The right actions today will ensure that sub-Saharan Africa thrives in a post-COVID world Abebe Aemro Selassie Quantum Computing’s Possibilities and Perils Quantum computers could crack the cryptography that underpins financial stability José Deodoro, Michael Gorbanyov, Majid Malaika, and Tahsin Saadi Sedik DEPARTMENTS People in Economics Data-Driven Chris Wellisz profile s MIT’s Amy Finkelstein , who tests economic models with large data sets Picture This The Journey of the COVID-19 Vaccine The development of COVID-19 vaccines has been

Mr. Daniel Garcia-Macia and Rishi Goyal

). From a classical economic perspective, this escalation makes little sense. In traditional sectors, barriers to trade generally lower economic well-being in all countries involved, as they prevent efficient specialization and limit the variety of goods available. In the digital era, however, leadership in emerging technologies bestows outsize profits, global market shares, and the ability to set standards. New services built on data, such as artificial intelligence, next generation 5G networks and the internet of things, and quantum computing have opened the way for

Joel Mokyr

radical progress in the evolution of new materials. With the advent of quantum computing, computational power in many of these areas may increase by a substantial factor. By the same token, artificial intelligence, while still the source of much concern that it will replace educated knowledge workers and not just routinized jobs, could become the world’s most effective research assistant, even if it will never become the world’s best researcher ( Economist 2016 , 14). Laser technology is an equally revolutionary scientific tool; when the first lasers were

International Monetary Fund

more to share now. Higher growth means a fuller public purse and a more potent fiscal policy response to this demographic challenge. There is, of course, an essential ingredient for growth—and that is raising labor productivity by using ever smarter technology. People here at MIT know a thing or two about that. “Artificial intelligence, robotics, genetic engineering, 3-D printing, and quantum computing: these are only a few of the technologies that could profoundly affect our economic well-being in the 21st century”. Technological Innovation—A Must

International Monetary Fund. Communications Department

there is more to share now. Higher growth means a fuller public purse and a more potent fiscal policy response to this demographic challenge. There is, of course, an essential ingredient for growth—and that is raising labor productivity by using ever smarter technology. People here at MIT know a thing or two about that. “Artificial intelligence, robotics, genetic engineering, 3-D printing, and quantum computing: these are only a few of the technologies that could profoundly affect our economic well-being in the twenty-first century.” Technological

Mr. Martin Mühleisen

frameworks need to ensure financial integrity and protect consumers while still supporting efficiency and innovation. Looking forward, we may see even more disruption from breakthroughs in quantum computing, which would facilitate calculations that are beyond the capabilities of traditional computers. While enabling exciting new products, these computers could undo even some new technologies. For example, they could render current standards in cryptology obsolete, potentially affecting communication and privacy on a global level. And this is just one aspect of threats to