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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
COVID-19 hit the economy hard, but a strong recovery is underway. Public debt, already elevated before the pandemic, has increased further. The government has embarked on a reform program ‘Europe Now’, which aims to arrest outward migration through a sharp minimum wage increase, labor tax wedge reduction, and the introduction of a progressive tax code. The financial sector appears to have withstood the COVID-19 shock well.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

previous year’s prices. The production GDP estimates are reconciled with the expenditure GDP estimates through the supply and use framework (i.e. reconciling supply and use). The quality of the annual GDP is good. Montenegro started disseminating quarterly GDP by production using an indirect method in 2012, but the methodology has room for improvement. The estimates are compiled at an aggregated level (mostly NACE section level). The accuracy of the short term statistics needs to be improved, mostly for agriculture, and construction. Recent national accounts TA missions

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This report highlights the recent economic developments and outlook and risks related to the Montenegro’s economy. It also discusses policies which need to be implemented to boost growth. Montenegro’s economy has rebounded in the past year, and strong growth looks set to continue in 2016, at slightly more than 4 percent. Although the government’s growth strategy can bring substantial gains, it also carries sizable risks, notably to the public finances. The authorities have taken various policy measures to (1) contain fiscal sustainability risks, (2) sustainably revitalize credit conditions, (3) safeguard financial sector stability, and (4) boost competitiveness and economic flexibility.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Strong growth this year looks set to continue into the medium term. The authorities are seeking to accelerate growth and development, mainly through new infrastructure projects, but also with fiscal incentives. Although this growth strategy can bring substantial gains, it also poses sizeable risks, notably to public finances, and also in terms of the allocation of capital and financial stability. Gross debt has increased substantially over the past year and looks likely to increase significantly, to 80 percent of GDP. Staff recommends immediate and durable fiscal consolidation measures to limit risks to the public finances and to ensure favorable conditions for funding, particularly to the extent that further infrastructure projects would require additional public debt. Fiscal consolidation is also important for improving external balance, especially as the economy lacks independent monetary policy. A credible strategy to safeguard the health of the public finances would address longstanding problems with public expenditures, such as the very high level of spending on pensions and public sector wages. Measures should be supported by strengthening the fiscal framework and public financial management.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Strong growth this year looks set to continue into the medium term. The authorities are seeking to accelerate growth and development, mainly through new infrastructure projects, but also with fiscal incentives. Although this growth strategy can bring substantial gains, it also poses sizeable risks, notably to public finances, and also in terms of the allocation of capital and financial stability. Gross debt has increased substantially over the past year and looks likely to increase significantly, to 80 percent of GDP. Staff recommends immediate and durable fiscal consolidation measures to limit risks to the public finances and to ensure favorable conditions for funding, particularly to the extent that further infrastructure projects would require additional public debt. Fiscal consolidation is also important for improving external balance, especially as the economy lacks independent monetary policy. A credible strategy to safeguard the health of the public finances would address longstanding problems with public expenditures, such as the very high level of spending on pensions and public sector wages. Measures should be supported by strengthening the fiscal framework and public financial management.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Strong growth this year looks set to continue into the medium term. The authorities are seeking to accelerate growth and development, mainly through new infrastructure projects, but also with fiscal incentives. Although this growth strategy can bring substantial gains, it also poses sizeable risks, notably to public finances, and also in terms of the allocation of capital and financial stability. Gross debt has increased substantially over the past year and looks likely to increase significantly, to 80 percent of GDP. Staff recommends immediate and durable fiscal consolidation measures to limit risks to the public finances and to ensure favorable conditions for funding, particularly to the extent that further infrastructure projects would require additional public debt. Fiscal consolidation is also important for improving external balance, especially as the economy lacks independent monetary policy. A credible strategy to safeguard the health of the public finances would address longstanding problems with public expenditures, such as the very high level of spending on pensions and public sector wages. Measures should be supported by strengthening the fiscal framework and public financial management.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

previous year’s prices. The production GDP estimates are reconciled with the expenditure GDP estimates through the supply and use framework (i.e. reconciling supply and use). The quality of the annual GDP is good. Montenegro started disseminating quarterly GDP by production using an indirect method in 2012, but the methodology has room for improvement. The estimates are compiled at an aggregated level (mostly NACE section level). Recent national accounts TA missions have focused on developing robust quarterly GDP estimates by expenditure approach. Quarterly GDP estimates

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

expenditure accounts in current and previous year’s prices. The production GDP estimates are reconciled with the expenditure GDP estimates through the supply and use framework (i.e. reconciling supply and use). The quality of the annual GDP is good. Montenegro started disseminating quarterly GDP by production using an indirect method in 2012, but the methodology has room for improvement. The estimates are compiled at an aggregated level (mostly NACE section level). Recent national accounts TA missions have focused on developing robust quarterly GDP estimates by

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Montenegro (MONSTAT) compiles annual production and expenditure accounts in current and previous year’s prices. The production GDP estimates are reconciled with the expenditure GDP estimates through the supply and use framework (i.e. reconciling supply and use). The quality of the annual GDP is good. Montenegro started disseminating quarterly GDP by production using an indirect method in 2012, but the methodology has room for improvement. The estimates are compiled at an aggregated level (mostly NACE section level). The accuracy of the short term statistics needs to be