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Peter D. Williams
Inflation has been below the Federal Reserve’s target for much of the past 20 years, creating worries that inflation may be deanchoring from the FOMC’s target. This paper uses a factor model that incorporates information from professional forecasters, household and business surveys, and the market for Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS) to estimate long-run inflation expectations. These have fallen notably in the past few years (to roughly 1.9 percent for CPI inflation, well below the FOMC’s target). It appears that, even before the covid recession, the private sector viewed the economy as likely to suffer from persistent headwinds to inflation.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa needs much faster economic growth and more effective economic, financial, and social policies if it is to make up for lost ground and reduce the number of people living in abject poverty. Edited by Laura Wallace, this volume presents the proceedings of a May 1998 seminar in Paris, organized jointly by the IMF and the Japanese Ministry of Finance, on ways to accelerate Africa's growth in our increasingly globalized world. Senior African and Asian government officials, representatives from multicultural institutions, donors, academics, and private sector participants gathered to discuss how to improve the private investment environment in African countries and take advantage of globalization's benefits while minimizing its risks, and how to strengthen the contribution of government in areas of capacity building, good governance, effective public resource management, and improved quality and composition of government spending.

Peter D. Williams

Inflation has been below the Federal Reserve’s target for much of the past 20 years, creating worries that inflation may be deanchoring from the FOMC’s target. This paper uses a factor model that incorporates information from professional forecasters, household and business surveys, and the market for Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS) to estimate long-run inflation expectations. These have fallen notably in the past few years (to roughly 1.9 percent for CPI inflation, well below the FOMC’s target). It appears that, even before the covid recession, the private sector viewed the economy as likely to suffer from persistent headwinds to inflation.

International Monetary Fund

Procedural Issues V. Conclusion Tables 1. Countries with Full PRSPs 2. PRSP Targets Versus Historical Trends 3. Improvements in the Business Climate: Reducing the Time and Costs of Registering a Business for Selected Early PRSPs 4. Use of MDG Indicators as PRSP Indicators Boxes 1. Incorporating Private Sector Views in the Ethiopian PRSP 2. PSIA of PRSP Reform Programs: the Case of Vietnam 3. Multi-sector Macroeconomic Model in Cameroon 4. Treatment and Analysis of Trade in Recent PRSPs 5. Measures to Improve the Investment Climate in PRSPs 6. Is

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

private sector. If official bilateral debt were to be brought into the SDRM, the Paris Club would need to modify its procedures and decision-making process, he added. Private sector views Robert Gray, Chair, Debt Financing and Advisory Group, HSBC Investment Bank, and Chair, International Primary Market Association; Richard Gitlin, President, Gitlin & Company; and Mohamed El-Erian, Managing Director, PIMCO, provided private sector perspectives and articulated differing views on the merits of the SDRM. Gray argued that the SDRM was the wrong way to go and

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

measurable results. The Group of Seven met entrepreneurs from developing countries and reiterated support for their efforts. We urge private sector views to be consistently included in MDB assistance plans. On remittances, we will continue to work on our initiatives to reduce barriers that raise the cost of sending them and to integrate remittance services in the formal financial sector. We are committed to working with governments, the private sector, and the MDBs to broaden access for families and entrepreneurs to financial services. Official development assistance