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International Monetary Fund

geographical areas. The disparities are particularly marked between the rural and urban areas, and the Northern region and the rest of the country. In the view of staff, this analysis needs to be complemented with recommendations on specific actions that should be taken to address prevailing income inequalities. In this regard, particular attention should be paid to understanding the poverty reduction effects of different growth scenarios, as poverty elasticity can vary significantly across sectors and regions. Staff encourage the Government to evaluate the poverty reduction

Pedro Conceição and Selim Jahan

way to meeting the extreme poverty target under MDG 1. Economic growth certainly played an important role in this progress but cannot alone account for it. By contrast, many sub-Saharan African countries, some growing much more rapidly than Ghana, have been much less successful in reducing poverty. Many of those that grew as rapidly as, or even faster than, Ghana have barely reduced poverty. In fact, on average, growth has been historically much less effective in reducing poverty in sub-Saharan Africa than elsewhere. According to some estimates, the poverty

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

(Poverty Elasticity = 0.76, between 2000 and 2010) 31.5 30.1 28.8 27.4 25.9 24.5 Head Count Poverty (Poverty Elasticity = 0.89, between 2005 and 2010) 31.5 29.7 27.9 26.1 24.3 22.5 Source: Sixth Plan Projections The reduction in poverty will essentially be driven by the growth in the per capita income which is projected to grow on average at more than 6% per year with the growth in per capita income steadily accelerating to 6.9% in the terminal year of the Plan. The poverty elasticity of growth method is used

Mr. Kevin J Carey, Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, and Ms. Catherine A Pattillo

, in the long run, whether growth is pro-poor is simply a matter of the rate of overall growth. At shorter horizons, variation in inequality and poverty elasticity can matter, but, on average, the effect is small. Moreover, as emphasized by Kraay ( 2005 , 2006 ), the source of variation in the income distribution and elasticity components is poorly understood. Nonetheless, the elasticity of poverty (which is presumed to be negative) is larger in absolute value when inequality is lower and mean income is higher. The intuition, as explained in Heltberg (2004) , turns

Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, Ms. Catherine A Pattillo, and Mr. Kevin J Carey
Are improvements in growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) since the mid-1990s sustainable? What types of growth strategies contribute the most to reducing poverty? This paper examines these questions in four stages. First, it explores the factors contributing to the post- 1995 improvement in growth. Second, to shed some light on factors associated with substantial jumps in growth rates that are sustained in the medium term, an analysis of the correlates of growth accelerations is presented. Third, the paper examines the consistency of the SSA data with some important predictions from the literature directly linking such areas as fiscal policy, financial development, or institutions and growth. Fourth, it reviews recent evidence regarding lessons on the type of growth process that is most effective at raising the incomes of the poor.
Eric V. Edmonds, Nina Pavcnik, and Petia Topalova

Front Matter Page Research Department Authorized for distribution by Arvind Subramanian Contents I. Introduction II. Conceptual Framework A. Data B. Indian Trade Reform III. Empirical Strategy A. Measuring Tariff Protection B. Empirical Framework IV. Main Findings A. School Attendance B. Robustness of Basic Findings C. Literacy D. Selective Migration E. Other Trade Channels V. Mechanisms A. Returns to Education B. Child Labor Demand C. Poverty D. Poverty Elasticity of Schooling and Child Labor VI