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Ms. Natasha X Che and Xuege Zhang
This paper studies the relationship between export structure and growth performance. We design an export recommendation system using a collaborative filtering algorithm based on countries' revealed comparative advantages. The system is used to produce export portfolio recommendations covering over 190 economies and over 30 years. We find that economies with their export structure more aligned with the recommended export structure achieve better growth performance, in terms of both higher GDP growth rate and lower growth volatility. These findings demonstrate that export structure matters for obtaining high and stable growth. Our recommendation system can serve as a practical tool for policymakers seeking actionable insights on their countries’ export potential and diversification strategies that may be complex and hard to quantify.
Ms. Natasha X Che and Xuege Zhang

This paper studies the relationship between export structure and growth performance. We design an export recommendation system using a collaborative filtering algorithm based on countries' revealed comparative advantages. The system is used to produce export portfolio recommendations covering over 190 economies and over 30 years. We find that economies with their export structure more aligned with the recommended export structure achieve better growth performance, in terms of both higher GDP growth rate and lower growth volatility. These findings demonstrate that export structure matters for obtaining high and stable growth. Our recommendation system can serve as a practical tool for policymakers seeking actionable insights on their countries’ export potential and diversification strategies that may be complex and hard to quantify.

Ms. Natasha X Che and Xuege Zhang

Copyright Page © 2022 International Monetary Fund WP/22/75 IMF Working Paper Asia & Pacific Department High Performance Export Portfolio: Design Growth-Enhancing Export Structure with Machine Learning Prepared by Natasha Che, Xuege Zhang * Authorized for distribution by Shanaka Jayanath Peiris April 2022 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate . The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

. Che , Natasha . “ Intelligent export diversification: an export recommendation system with machine learning ”. IMF Working Paper , 2020 . Che , Natasha and Xuege Zhang . “ High performance export portfolio: design growth-enhancing export structure with machine learning ”. IMF Working Paper , 2021 . Clickstreams, Multi-faceted Web . “ Workshop Notes ”, 2005 . Feenstra , Robert and Hiau Looi Kee . “ Export variety and country productivity: Estimating the monopolistic competition model with endogenous productivity ”. In: Journal of

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

diversification: what’s behind the hump? ” In: Review of Economics and Statistics 93 . 2 ( 2011 ), pp. 590 - 605 . Che , Natasha . “ Intelligent export diversification: an export recommendation system with machine learning ”. IMF Working Paper , 2020 . Che , Natasha and Xuege Zhang . “ High performance export portfolio: design growth-enhancing export structure with machine learning ”. IMF Working Paper , 2022 . Imbs , Jean and Romain Wacziarg . “ Stages of diversification ”. In: American Economic Review 93 . 1 ( 2003 ), pp. 63 - 86 . Klinger

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
After successfully weathering the pandemic in 2020, Brunei was hit by new waves of COVID-19, with case numbers going up significantly and new lockdown measures imposed in H2 2021. Reduced activities in mining and LNG manufacturing, combined with the negative impact of new pandemic variants on domestic services, led to a slowdown in the economy. Real GDP contracted by 1.6 percent in 2021. For 2022, growth is projected to rebound to 1.2 percent, on the back of easing of mobility constraints and a positive terms of trade shock due to surges in O&G prices. Inflation, while remaining relatively low at 2.2 percent at end 2021, has increased in 2022 and pressures are expected to remain elevated in the short term, owing to supply disruptions and higher food and fuel prices. The economy continues to diversify, with double-digit growth of the food/agriculture sector and a new fertilizer sector commencing production. The risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, due to potential new COVID-19 variants, increased global uncertainty associated with an escalation of the war in Ukraine, monetary tightening from the US and a larger-than-expected growth slowdown in China. On the upside, higher energy prices would further improve the terms of trade and restore fiscal positions in the short term, while partially contributing to build the buffers needed to ensure stronger intergenerational equity. Strong policy actions are needed to boost medium-term growth and foster resilience.