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Ruchir Agarwal, Ms. Gita Gopinath, Jeremy Farrar, Richard Hatchett, and Peter Sands
The pandemic is not over, and the health and economic losses continue to grow. It is now evident that COVID-19 will be with us for the long term, and there are very different scenarios for how it could evolve, from a mild endemic scenario to a dangerous variant scenario. This realization calls for a new strategy that manages both the uncertainty and the long-term risks of COVID-19. There are four key policy implications of such as strategy. First, we need to achieve equitable access beyond vaccines to encompass a comprehensive toolkit. Second, we must monitor the evolving virus and dynamically upgrade the toolkit. Third, we must transition from the acute response to a sustainable strategy toward COVID-19, balanced and integrated with other health and social priorities. Fourth, we need a unified risk-mitigation approach to future infectious disease threats beyond COVID-19. Infectious diseases with pandemic potential are a threat to global economic and health security. The international community should recognize that its pandemic financing addresses a systemic risk to the global economy, not just the development need of a particular country. Accordingly, it should allocate additional funding to fight pandemics and strengthen health systems both domestically and overseas. This will require about $15 billion in grants this year and $10 billion annually after that.
Ruchir Agarwal, Ms. Gita Gopinath, Jeremy Farrar, Richard Hatchett, and Peter Sands

infections) and noninfectious diseases. Such investments and those in R&D and distributed manufacturing will not be sustainable for the long term unless they have a function and are maintained between outbreaks. Some required investments, however, may not yield such obvious or immediate dividends. Confronted with low-yield but necessary investments, the donor community should recognize that its pandemic financing addresses a systemic risk to global economic and health security, and not just the development needs of particular countries or regions. The international

Ruchir Agarwal and Ms. Gita Gopinath

COVID-19 pandemic that could inform future policy priorities and help shape a better global response to future crises. JEL Classification Numbers: H4, I1, L6, O4 Keywords: COVID-19, pandemic, Finance & Trade Author’s E-Mail Address: ragarwal@imf.org ; ggopinath@imf.org ; Title Page Seven Finance and Trade Lessons from COVID-19 for Future Pandemics Ruchir Agarwal and Gita Gopinath 1 Contents I. Introduction II. Seven Financing & Trade Lessons from COVID-19 A. Lesson 1: Rationale & Source of

Victor Duarte Lledo and Mr. Roberto Perrelli

Progress and Challenges B. Pre-Pandemic Financing Gaps IV. The COVID-19 Impact on Rwanda V. Rwanda’s SDG Financing: Post-Pandemic Gap and Policy Options VI. SDG Financing: The Perils of Scarring VII. Concluding Remarks References Box 1. Rwanda’s COVID-19 Crisis Response Figures Figure 1. Rwanda: Performance across Selected SDGs Figure 2. Rwanda: SDG Needs according to IMF Costing Mission Figure 3: Rwanda: Pandemic-Related Real Output Losses, 2018–25 Figure 4: Rwanda: Gross Nominal Public Debt Paths, 2018–30 Figure 5. Rwanda: Changes in

Ruchir Agarwal, Ms. Gita Gopinath, Jeremy Farrar, Richard Hatchett, and Peter Sands

vaccines to encompass a comprehensive toolkit. Second, we must monitor the evolving virus and dynamically upgrade the toolkit. Third, we must transition from the acute response to a sustainable strategy toward COVID-19, balanced and integrated with other health and social priorities. Fourth, we need a unified risk-mitigation approach to future infectious disease threats beyond COVID-19. Infectious diseases with pandemic potential are a threat to global economic and health security. The international community should recognize that its pandemic financing addresses a

Ricardo Reis

of currency to make debt payments—which leads to inflation as well. Central bank independence has taken these off the table in the past two decades for many countries. It has made public debt safe from inflation risk, especially for foreign investors for whom even the anticipation of inflation comes with losses through a depreciating currency. Could this change? The history of central banking shows that after national emergencies, such as the pandemic, finance ministries often do take over the functions of the central bank. Second, central banks earned

Ruchir Agarwal and Ms. Gita Gopinath

, the World Bank has set aside $12 billion to help developing countries purchase and distribute vaccines, tests, and treatments (of which about $2 billion has been utilized as of end-April 2021), and the Asian Development Bank has made $9 billion in financing available for vaccine procurement and delivery in developing Asia. There is scope to scale up utilization of such facilities. Annex I provides additional details of the pandemic financing facilities. The IMF can also play its role to help countries meet their financing needs—supporting countries’ own efforts to

Victor Duarte Lledo and Mr. Roberto Perrelli
This paper uses a novel macroeconomic framework to identify policy and financing options to help Rwanda achieve its sustainable development goals (SDGs). Under current policies, Rwanda would meet its SDGs right after 2050. Active policies that combine fiscal reforms and higher private sector participation could fulfill more than one third of Rwanda’s post-pandemic SDG financing gap, enabling the country to meet its SDG targets by 2040. For Rwanda to meet its SDGs by 2030, active policies would need to be complemented with about 13¾ percentage points of GDP in additional resources annually until then.
Ruchir Agarwal and Ms. Gita Gopinath
Pandemics and epidemics pose risks to lives, societies, and economies, and their frequency is expected to increase as rising trade and increased human interaction with animals leads to the emergence of new diseases. The COVID-19 pandemic teaches us that we can and must be better prepared, with scope for much greater global coordination to address the financing, supply-chain, and trade barriers that amplified the pandemic’s economic costs and contributed to the emergence of new variants. This paper draws seven early lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic that could inform future policy priorities and help shape a better global response to future crises.