corporate liquidity needs, especially in advanced European economies. At the same time, the ability of the announced policy measures to curb the increase in solvency risks appears more limited, especially for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), amid a projected rise in corporate indebtedness. Careful policy calibration will be needed to better support companies that are deemed viable in the longer term and to facilitate the orderly exit of firms that are unlikely to succeed in the post-pandemiceconomy .
The spread of COVID-19, containment measures to reduce it, and
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused dramatic loss of human life and major damage to the European economy, but thanks to an exceptionally strong policy response, potentially devastating outcomes have been avoided.
protect people who cannot make a living under the current circumstances and to promote a strong recovery. Fiscal policy should be tailored to different phases of the pandemic, adapting to evolving needs to protect people, support demand, facilitate the transformation to the post-pandemiceconomy, and ensure debt sustainability .
The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted an unprecedented fiscal response worldwide to support health systems and provide lifelines to vulnerable households and firms. Fiscal measures announced as of September 11, 2020, are
The immediate focus of governments during the COVID-19 crisis thus far has appropriately been to address the health emergency and provide lifelines for vulnerable households and businesses. Governments now also need to prepare economies for safe and successful reopening, foster recovery in employment and economic activity, and facilitate transformation to a post-pandemiceconomy that, with the right policies, can be more resilient, more inclusive, and greener. Public investment can make a crucial contribution toward these goals (see a
Post-Pandemic Potential Growth and Scarring
Poland has achieved rapid post-transition convergence to EU income levels over the last thirty years, the continuation of which will necessitate the maintenance of strong potential growth. The pandemic triggered Poland’s first recession in three decades. Deep recessions are typically associated with scarring, with the level of output failing to return to the previous trend over the medium term. Possible changes to the structure of post-pandemiceconomies also raise questions concerning the economy’s ability to
This chapter was prepared by Kamil Dybczak, Carlos Mulas Granados, and Ezgi Ozturk with inputs from Vizhdan Boranova, Karim Foda, Keiko Honjo, Raju Huidrom, Nemanja Jovanovic and Svitlana Maslova, under the supervision of Jörg Decressin and the guidance of Gabriel Di Bella. Jaewoo Lee and Petia Topalova provided useful advice and comments. Nomelie Veluz provided administrative support. This chapter reflects data and developments as of September 28, 2020.
Bertrand Gruss (co-lead), Carlos Mulas-Granados, Manasa Pat-nam (co-lead), and Sebastian Weber prepared this chapter under the supervision of Enrica Detragiache and the guidance of Jeffrey Franks. Zan Jin provided excellent research support.
continue to adapt strategies to stay ahead of implications of court rulings on foreign exchange mortgages. The bank asset tax should be redesigned to avoid distorting credit allocation.
Structural reforms : To mitigate the long-term effects of the crisis, the authorities should bolster investment and adjust labor market policies to support participation and ease the reallocation of labor in the post-pandemiceconomy.
Jörg Decressin (EUR) and Martin Sommer (SPR)
Discussions were held remotely on November 2–19, 2020. The team comprised Alfredo
transition toward a post-pandemiceconomy. Policy measures should become more targeted at supporting viable jobs and firms, while incentivizing the reallocation of resources. The Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds provide a unique opportunity to invest in the recovery and transformation toward a greener and more digitalized economy.
Medium-term challenges . Once the recovery is entrenched, greater emphasis should be placed on addressing medium-term challenges. The fiscal framework needs to be steered closer to the medium-term objective, preferably with measures that further