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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

, global growth is projected to moderate to about 3.5 percent over the medium term. The ongoing rise in inflation is expected to be transitory, though uncertainty remains high. The Asian outlook for 2021 has been downgraded by more than 1 percent to 6.5 percent compared with the April 2021 World Economic Outlook because of new peaks of the pandemic cycle driven by the highly contagious Delta variant. As vaccination rates accelerate, the region is expected to grow slightly faster in 2022 than anticipated earlier. Although Asia and Pacific remains the fastest growing

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

This section uses novel daily data to examine the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and quantify the effects of vaccinations on health and economic outcomes and how they vary during the pandemic cycle. Based on cross-country evidence, it shows that the extent of vaccine deployment is driven primarily by the severity of the COVID-19 waves in 2020, procurement strategies, local production of vaccines, the quality of the health infrastructure, and vaccine acceptance. The chapter provides new empirical evidence that the swift and broad administration of

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

Fall 2021 Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific--Navigating Waves of New Variants: Pandemic Resurgence Slows the Recovery

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

Fall 2021 Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific--Navigating Waves of New Variants: Pandemic Resurgence Slows the Recovery

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

Fall 2021 Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific--Navigating Waves of New Variants: Pandemic Resurgence Slows the Recovery

Mr. Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, Nour Tawk, and Naihan Yang
This paper empirically examines the effects of fiscal policy measures during the COVID-19 pandemic, using a novel database of daily fiscal policy announcements—classified by type of fiscal measure—and high-frequency economic indicators for 52 countries from January 1 to December 31, 2020. The results suggest that fiscal policy announcements have been effective in stimulating economic activity, boosting confidence, and reducing unemployment, but their effect varies by type of measure and country characteristics. Emergency lifeline measures (which form the bulk of below-the-line measures) are more effective when containment policies are stringent, providing cashflow support to firms and households. Demand-support measures (which comprise most of above-the-line measures) are more effective when containment measures are relaxed.
Mr. Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, Nour Tawk, and Naihan Yang

, umbrella guarantees and equity injections (which form the bulk of below-the-line measures) —have been more effective in boosting economic activity during COVID-19 than demand-support measures—such as tax cuts or payment deferrals, cash transfers and unemployment insurance. However, these results mask significant heterogeneity depending on the state of pandemiccycle”. In particular, emergency lifeline measures appear more effective when containment is high and social mobility is low. This is consistent with the idea that when supply constraints are high, emergency