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Mr. Francis Vitek

Front Matter Page Strategy, Policy, and Review Department Contents Abstract I. Introduction II. Trade and Financial Linkages A. Trade Linkages B. Direct Financial Linkages C. Indirect Financial Linkages III. Spillovers from Macroeconomic and Financial Shocks A. Business Cycle Accounting B. Output Spillovers Inward Output Spillovers Outward Output Spillovers IV. External Risk Scenarios A. Intensification of the Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis B. Disorderly Fiscal Consolidation in the United States C. Hard