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Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne, and Rafael Romeu
The Cuban revolution and the subsequent US embargo on Cuba helped shape the tourism sector in the Caribbean, facilitating the birth and growth of alternative destinations. Therefore, the apprehension of the Caribbean tourism industry towards a change in US travel policy to Cuba is understandable, but likely unwarranted. The history of tourism in the region has shown that it is possible for all destinations to grow despite large changes in market shares. Our estimations show that liberalizing US-Cuba tourism could result in US arrivals to Cuba of between 3 and 5.6 million, most of it coming from new tourists to the region. We also identify the destinations most at risk of changes in US-Cuba relations.
Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne, and Rafael Romeu

destination’s gain is another one’s loss, and hence an orderly and gradual US-Cuba opening up should not affect the vital airlift services on which all Caribbean destinations depend for their tourism exports. This paper follows the work of Romeu ( 2014 , and 2008 ) to estimate the potential impact on tourism flows in the Caribbean following a full liberalization of travel between the US and Cuba. In these papers, a gravity trade model is used to analyze Caribbean tourism, with results indicating that opening US-Cuba tourism will result in an increase in US tourists to

Mr. Krishna Srinivasan, Ms. Inci Ötker, Ms. Uma Ramakrishnan, and Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne

2,431 9,103 Puerto Rico 1.46 134,184 1,693 3,720 10,843 150,440 Source: Caribbean Tourism Organization and author’s calculations. References Acevedo , Sebastian , Trevor Alleyne , and Rafael Romeu . 2017 . “ Revisiting the Potential Impact to the Rest of the Caribbean from Opening US-Cuba Tourism .” IMF Working Paper 17/100 , International Monetary Fund , Washington, DC . Acevedo , Sebastian , Lu Han , Marie Kim , and Nicole LaFramboise . 2016 . “ Flying to Paradise: The Role of Airlift in

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Cuevas, Izabela Karpowicz, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Mauricio Soto Working Paper 17/100 Revisiting the Potential Impact to the Rest of the Caribbean from Opening US-Cuba Tourism Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne, Rafael Romeu Working Paper 17/101 Central Bank Legal Frameworks in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis Ashraf Khan Working Paper 17/102 Macroprudential Liquidity Stress Testing in FSAPs for Systemically Important Financial Systems Andreas A. Jobst, Li Lian Ong, Christian Schmieder

Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan, Li Zhao, Steve Brito, and Vivian Parlak

Paper WP/14/125 . Acevedo , S. , Han , L. , Kim , M. , and N. Laframboise , 2016 , “ Flying to Paradise: The Role of Airlift in the Caribbean Tourism Industry ,” IMF Working Paper WP/16/33 . Acevedo , S. , Alleyne , T. , and Romeu , R. , 2017 , “ Revisiting the Potential Impact to the Rest of the Caribbean from Opening US-Cuba Tourism ”, IMF Working paper WP/17/100 . Acevedo , S. , and Walker , C. , 2013 , “ The Eastern Caribbean Economic and Currency Union, Macroeconomics and Financial Systems ”, edited by Schipke , A

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The Summer 2017 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin highlights new research such as recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes. The Research Summaries are “Structural Reform Packages, Sequencing, and the Informal Economy (by Zsuzsa Munkacsi and Magnus Saxegaard) and “A Broken Social Contract, Not High Inequality Led to the Arab Spring” (by Shantayanan Devarajan and Elena Ianchovichina). The Q&A section features “Seven Questions on Fintech” (by Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli). The Bulletin also includes information on recommended titles from IMF Publications and the latest articles from the IMF Economic Review.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Acevedo , S. , Alleyne , T. , and Romeu , R. , 2017 , “ Revisiting the Potential Impact to the Rest of the Caribbean from Opening US-Cuba Tourism ”, IMF Working paper WP/17/100 . Acevedo , S. , Han , L. , Kim , M. , and N. Laframboise , 2016 , “ Flying to Paradise: The Role of Airlift in the Caribbean Tourism Industry ,” IMF Working Paper WP/16/33. Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales (CEPII) , 2015 , GeoDist Database , available at: http://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/welcome.asp IMF , 2018 , “ Cheap

Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan, Li Zhao, Steve Brito, and Vivian Parlak
Tourism has become the main driver of economic growth and employment and the most important source of income in the ECCU. Preserving and, possibly, enhancing the competitiveness of the tourism product is key for these countries. Unfortunately, the evidence shows that tourism arrivals to the ECCU have been declining slightly while global demand for tourism is on the rise. The objective of this paper is to study the structural determinants of competitiveness for the ECCU, defined as the relative cost advantage over other touristic regions (Di Bella, Lewis, and Martin 2007). Using a gravity model, we show that proximity to North American and European markets is indeed an important competitive advantage for the ECCU. However, despite this advantage, and, in some cases, specialization in high-end tourism, regression analysis shows that arrivals to the ECCU are sensitive to relative prices. Our simulations show that mitigating supply-side constraints would improve the ECCU’s competitiveness and allow the region to regain global market shares.
Mr. Krishna Srinivasan, Ms. Inci Ötker, Ms. Uma Ramakrishnan, and Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne

to the Rest of the Caribbean from Opening US-Cuba Tourism .” IMF Working Paper 17/100 , International Monetary Fund , Washington, DC . Acevedo , Sebastian , Lu Han , Marie Kim , and Nicole LaFramboise . 2016 . “ Flying to Paradise: The Role of Airlift in the Caribbean Tourism Industry .” IMF Working Paper 16/33 , International Monetary Fund , Washington, DC . Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) . 2015 . “ Making Air Transport Work Better for the Caribbean .” Caribbean Development Bank , St. Michael , Barbados . EM-DAT: The OFDA

Vybhavi Balasundharam and Mr. Robin Koepke

to some of the estimates in the literature, including the estimates presented here, to predict the pace of recovery and study the impact of different policy measures. References Acevedo , M. S. , Trevor S. , and Coleridge A , 2017 , “ Revisiting the Potential Impact to the Rest of the Caribbean from Opening US-Cuba Tourism ,” IMF Working Paper 17/100 ( Washington : International Monetary Fund ). Arslanalp , S. , R. Koepke and J. Verschuur , 2021 , “ Tracking Trade from Space: An Application to Pacific Island Countries