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Cover IMF Working Papers
Revisiting the Potential Impact to the Rest of the Caribbean from Opening US-Cuba Tourism
Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne, and Rafael Romeu
The Cuban revolution and the subsequent US embargo on Cuba helped shape the tourism sector in the Caribbean, facilitating the birth and growth of alternative destinations. Therefore, the apprehension of the Caribbean tourism industry towards a change in US travel policy to Cuba is understandable, but likely unwarranted. The history of tourism in the region has shown that it is possible for all destinations to grow despite large changes in market shares. Our estimations show that liberalizing US-Cuba tourism could result in US arrivals to Cuba of between 3 and 5.6 million, most of it coming from new tourists to the region. We also identify the destinations most at risk of changes in US-Cuba relations.
Keywords:
WP; tourist; Cuba; tourism industry; Tourism; Caribbean; Trade; Gravity model; US-Cuba relation; opening US-Cuba; tourism flow; visit Cuba; US-Cuba restriction; US-Cuba tourism; Gravity models
Cover IMF Working Papers
Revisiting the Potential Impact to the Rest of the Caribbean from Opening US-Cuba Tourism
Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne, and Rafael Romeu

destination’s gain is another one’s loss, and hence an orderly and gradual US-Cuba opening up should not affect the vital airlift services on which all Caribbean destinations depend for their tourism exports. This paper follows the work of Romeu ( 2014 , and 2008 ) to estimate the potential impact on tourism flows in the Caribbean following a full liberalization of travel between the US and Cuba. In these papers, a gravity trade model is used to analyze Caribbean tourism, with results indicating that opening US-Cuba tourism will result in an increase in US tourists to

Keywords:
WP; tourist; Cuba; tourism industry; tourist destination; tourism sector; US tourist; US-Cuba tourism flow; Cuba's tourist arrival
Cover IMF Working Papers
Diversion of Tourism Flows in the Asia & Pacific Region: Lessons for COVID-19 Recovery
Vybhavi Balasundharam and Mr. Robin Koepke
The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a collapse in international tourism, severely impacting the tourism-dependent economies in the Asia & Pacific region. Once countries start reopening, tourism diversion effects could accelerate the recovery in countries that establish themselves as more attractive travel destinations than competitors. We investigate the impact of previous shocks in tourism competitor countries on visitor inflows, with a particular focus on tourism-dependent Pacific Island Countries (PICs). We find that PICs were generally resilient to external shocks and benefitted from diversion effects for certain types of shocks. For example, the share of departures from Australia to PICs increased by 12 percent during the SARS outbreak. We then derive policy implications for the post-COVID-19 revival of inbound tourism to PICs and lessons for the future.
Keywords:
tourism diversion effect; tourism recovery; tourism sector; tourism determinant; tourism revenue; tourism development; Tourism; COVID-19; Communicable diseases; Asia and Pacific; Pacific Islands; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
New Insights into ECCU's Tourism Sector Competitiveness
Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan, Li Zhao, Steve Brito, and Vivian Parlak
Tourism has become the main driver of economic growth and employment and the most important source of income in the ECCU. Preserving and, possibly, enhancing the competitiveness of the tourism product is key for these countries. Unfortunately, the evidence shows that tourism arrivals to the ECCU have been declining slightly while global demand for tourism is on the rise. The objective of this paper is to study the structural determinants of competitiveness for the ECCU, defined as the relative cost advantage over other touristic regions (Di Bella, Lewis, and Martin 2007). Using a gravity model, we show that proximity to North American and European markets is indeed an important competitive advantage for the ECCU. However, despite this advantage, and, in some cases, specialization in high-end tourism, regression analysis shows that arrivals to the ECCU are sensitive to relative prices. Our simulations show that mitigating supply-side constraints would improve the ECCU’s competitiveness and allow the region to regain global market shares.
Keywords:
WP; ECCU; ECCU member; price elasticity; income elasticity; Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU); gravity model; tourism arrivals and expenditure; tourism infrastructure; doing business; governance indicators; tourism inflow; ECCU country; tourism product; tariffs vis; Tourism; Tariffs; Natural disasters; Competition; Caribbean; Global; North America
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, Summer 2017
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The Summer 2017 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin highlights new research such as recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes. The Research Summaries are “Structural Reform Packages, Sequencing, and the Informal Economy (by Zsuzsa Munkacsi and Magnus Saxegaard) and “A Broken Social Contract, Not High Inequality Led to the Arab Spring” (by Shantayanan Devarajan and Elena Ianchovichina). The Q&A section features “Seven Questions on Fintech” (by Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli). The Bulletin also includes information on recommended titles from IMF Publications and the latest articles from the IMF Economic Review.
Keywords:
IRB; product market reform; research journal; journal of the International Monetary Fund; capital account regulation; IMF liquidity provision facilities; appendix I. Labor; Income inequality; Structural reforms; Fintech; Labor market reforms; Global; Caribbean; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa; Africa
Cover Unleashing Growth and Strengthening Resilience in the Caribbean
Chapter 4. Cuba Awakening: Potential Risks and Opportunities
Sebastian Acevedo and Joyce Wong

2,431 9,103 Puerto Rico 1.46 134,184 1,693 3,720 10,843 150,440 Source: Caribbean Tourism Organization and author’s calculations. References Acevedo , Sebastian , Trevor Alleyne , and Rafael Romeu . 2017 . “ Revisiting the Potential Impact to the Rest of the Caribbean from Opening US-Cuba Tourism .” IMF Working Paper 17/100 , International Monetary Fund , Washington, DC . Acevedo , Sebastian , Lu Han , Marie Kim , and Nicole LaFramboise . 2016 . “ Flying to Paradise: The Role of Airlift in

Keywords:
BOOK; cost; bank; tourism sector; tourism market; tourism flow; supply-side response; U.S.-Cuba opening; Tourism; Caribbean
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Working Papers
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Cuevas, Izabela Karpowicz, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Mauricio Soto Working Paper 17/100 Revisiting the Potential Impact to the Rest of the Caribbean from Opening US-Cuba Tourism Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne, Rafael Romeu Working Paper 17/101 Central Bank Legal Frameworks in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis Ashraf Khan Working Paper 17/102 Macroprudential Liquidity Stress Testing in FSAPs for Systemically Important Financial Systems Andreas A. Jobst, Li Lian Ong, Christian Schmieder

Keywords:
IRB; product market reform; research journal; journal of the International Monetary Fund; capital account regulation; price deflator; oil price shock; sovereign bond price; Mexico's sovereign bond bond yield; monetary policy normalization
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: 2018 Discussion on Common Policies of Member Countries-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2018 discussion on common policies of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) highlights that the member countries are gradually recovering following the catastrophic impact of Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017. Conditions remain favorable to growth, however, risks are increasing. The fiscal balance for the region as a whole worsened in 2017, reflecting lower inflows from citizenship-by-investment programs and higher reconstruction and current spending. The IMF team made several policy recommendations including shifting focus from the current emphasis on recovery from natural disasters to building ex-ante resilience. The report also recommends intensifying decisive and timely actions to resolve weaknesses in the financial sector, including longstanding problems in the banking sector and emerging risks in the non-banking sector. The authorities expressed commitment to the acceleration of key reforms to upgrade and strengthen the financial sector regional oversight framework. In addition to fiscal consolidation, injecting new vigor into the structural policy agenda will help enhance competitiveness and make growth more inclusive.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; ECCU country; ECCU price aggregate; Cartac; ECCU debt target; ECCU authority; ECCU region; ECCU work program; ECCU aggregate; Natural disasters; Insurance; Nonperforming loans; Credit bureaus; Caribbean; Global; staff advice; IMF's transparency policy; IMF's article
Cover IMF Working Papers
New Insights into ECCU's Tourism Sector Competitiveness
Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan, Li Zhao, Steve Brito, and Vivian Parlak

Paper WP/14/125 . Acevedo , S. , Han , L. , Kim , M. , and N. Laframboise , 2016 , “ Flying to Paradise: The Role of Airlift in the Caribbean Tourism Industry ,” IMF Working Paper WP/16/33 . Acevedo , S. , Alleyne , T. , and Romeu , R. , 2017 , “ Revisiting the Potential Impact to the Rest of the Caribbean from Opening US-Cuba Tourism ”, IMF Working paper WP/17/100 . Acevedo , S. , and Walker , C. , 2013 , “ The Eastern Caribbean Economic and Currency Union, Macroeconomics and Financial Systems ”, edited by Schipke , A

Keywords:
WP; ECCU; ECCU member; tourism market; ECCU market share; ECCU economies move; ECCU tourism market; ECCU share
Cover IMF Working Papers
Diversion of Tourism Flows in the Asia & Pacific Region: Lessons for COVID-19 Recovery
Vybhavi Balasundharam and Mr. Robin Koepke

to some of the estimates in the literature, including the estimates presented here, to predict the pace of recovery and study the impact of different policy measures. References Acevedo , M. S. , Trevor S. , and Coleridge A , 2017 , “ Revisiting the Potential Impact to the Rest of the Caribbean from Opening US-Cuba Tourism ,” IMF Working Paper 17/100 ( Washington : International Monetary Fund ). Arslanalp , S. , R. Koepke and J. Verschuur , 2021 , “ Tracking Trade from Space: An Application to Pacific Island Countries

Keywords:
diversion effect; tourism recovery; tourism recipient country; tourism demand; tourism flow; Tourism; COVID-19; Communicable diseases; Asia and Pacific; Pacific Islands