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Ruchir Agarwal, Ms. Gita Gopinath, Jeremy Farrar, Richard Hatchett, and Peter Sands
The pandemic is not over, and the health and economic losses continue to grow. It is now evident that COVID-19 will be with us for the long term, and there are very different scenarios for how it could evolve, from a mild endemic scenario to a dangerous variant scenario. This realization calls for a new strategy that manages both the uncertainty and the long-term risks of COVID-19. There are four key policy implications of such as strategy. First, we need to achieve equitable access beyond vaccines to encompass a comprehensive toolkit. Second, we must monitor the evolving virus and dynamically upgrade the toolkit. Third, we must transition from the acute response to a sustainable strategy toward COVID-19, balanced and integrated with other health and social priorities. Fourth, we need a unified risk-mitigation approach to future infectious disease threats beyond COVID-19. Infectious diseases with pandemic potential are a threat to global economic and health security. The international community should recognize that its pandemic financing addresses a systemic risk to the global economy, not just the development need of a particular country. Accordingly, it should allocate additional funding to fight pandemics and strengthen health systems both domestically and overseas. This will require about $15 billion in grants this year and $10 billion annually after that.
Ruchir Agarwal, Ms. Gita Gopinath, Jeremy Farrar, Richard Hatchett, and Peter Sands

Balanced and Integrated Global Response (Policy Implication 3) V. A Unified Approach to Reduce Global Risks (Policy Implication 4) VI. Financing VII. Closing Thoughts VIII. References FIGURES 1. Pandemic Impact on World GDP 2. Over 100 countries are not on track to meet the mid-2022 vaccination target of 70% 3. Testing rates remain low and unequal worldwide 4. Illustration of a Comprehensive COVID-19 Toolkit Approach TABLES 1. Summary of the Central Pivot and its Implications 2. Four Possible Post-Omicron Scenarios and Priorities

Ruchir Agarwal, Ms. Gita Gopinath, Jeremy Farrar, Richard Hatchett, and Peter Sands

and high mortality? A possible future post-Omicron scenario is one marked by broad-based immunity and a marked reduction in severe disease and death. If that happens, the world can gradually focus less on the health shock and prioritize returning the economy to something resembling its pre-pandemic state. However, a clear takeaway from the pandemic is that SARS-CoV-2 has the capacity to surprise us, and there remains a significant if unquantifiable risk of a much more severe variant taking over the world and causing millions of additional deaths and trillions of