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Mr. Tiago Cavalcanti, Daniel Da Mata, and Mr. Frederik G Toscani

population density. Using historical data on sectoral employment, we calculate a measure of sectoral output per worker and show that oil discoveries increase GDP mainly by increasing output per worker. We also show that while both onshore and offshore discoveries increase manufacturing GDP (potentially in a mechanical way, since manufacturing includes oil production), only onshore discoveries increase services GDP and urbanization. We hypothesize that demand from well-paid oil workers is responsible for the observed increase in services and urbanization. Oil municipalities

Mr. Tiago Cavalcanti, Daniel Da Mata, and Mr. Frederik G Toscani
This paper provides evidence of the causal impact of oil discoveries on development. Novel data on the drilling of 20,000 oil wells in Brazil allows us to exploit a quasi-experiment: Municipalities where oil was discovered constitute the treatment group, while municipalities with drilling but no discovery are the control group. The results show that oil discoveries significantly increase per capita GDP and urbanization. We find positive spillovers to non-oil sectors, specifically, an increase in services GDP which stems from higher output per worker. The results are consistent with greater local demand for non-tradable services driven by highly paid oil workers.
Sergio Clavijo
This study examines the fiscal impact of the pension reform adopted in Colombia in 1993, which established a fully funded, privately administered pension system alongside the existing pay-as-you-go state scheme. The reform increased the contribution rate and reduced the benefits of the state scheme. However, the fiscal cost of the reform was high, estimated at 1.5 to 2.3 percent of GDP annually over the next three decades. This reflects concessions made to special groups of public servants, the delay in making effective the new retirement conditions, and the minimum pension guarantee. A new generation of pension reforms needs to be adopted.
International Monetary Fund

closed. However, many insolvent schemes were kept open and there are a number of irregularities in granting benefits under some of these schemes. There is no institution in Colombia that audits compliance with the provisions of the original plans and certify the benefits. 140. The reform enacted in 1993 left a number of public plans outside the general system. The pension systems for teachers, oil workers, and security forces are explicitly excluded. As regards pensions for workers of the public oil company (ECOPETROL), a portion of the oil-price windfall of 1999 and

Mr. Tiago Cavalcanti, Daniel Da Mata, and Mr. Frederik G Toscani
International Monetary Fund

, mainly as a result of industrial actions by oil workers during July and August 1994. 1/ Growth in real non-oil GDP is estimated to have dropped to less than 2½ percent in 1994, from 3 percent in the preceding year ( Chart 1 ). In the non-oil sectors, negative growth was recorded in both fishing and manufacturing activities. Output in fishing dropped by 6.5, as coastal fishing fell for a third consecutive year, partly in response to a rise in relative input costs associated with increased fuel prices. Manufacturing has experienced continuous problems in recent years

International Monetary Fund
This Background Paper and Statistical Appendix examines economic development in Nigeria in the first half of the 1990s. Economic growth slowed for the fourth consecutive year in 1994, to 1.3 percent from 2.3 percent in 1993. The slowdown was widespread, affecting every sector except agriculture. Output in the petroleum sector is estimated to have declined by 6 percent, mainly as a result of industrial actions by oil workers during July and August 1994. In the non-oil sectors, negative growth was recorded in both fishing and manufacturing activities.