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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

External Stability Assessment 1 The current account deficit declined in 2014. While gross international reserve coverage has increased slightly, part of the current account deficit has been financed by a decline in commercial banks’ net foreign assets. Contingent on the implementation of government’s consolidation plans, and helped by a favorable oil price outlook, the current account deficit would further gradually decline and be matched by sufficient financial inflows in the medium term. According to various metrics, the real exchange rate appears to be

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

government spending, the government would be forced to substantially draw down on its deposit buffer and/or significantly increase borrowing. Other risks concern a stronger-than-expected spillover of the oil price shock to non-oil economic activity (including to the financial sector), a weaker global economy, tightening international financial conditions, as well as persistent fragility at three small distressed state-owned banks. Executive Board Assessment 2 Directors noted that the low oil price outlook and the secular decline in oil production continue to test

International Monetary Fund

the authorities’ approach, staff observed that investment income of the RFFG was already significant and, combined with the anticipated large budgetary surpluses, would likely assume greater importance over time. If resources are well managed, given the current medium-term oil price outlook and fiscal stance, achieving fiscal sustainability and the transition to a predominantly non-oil economy in the long run will be much easier. Accordingly, as regards Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) assets, the staff underscored the importance of strong safeguard arrangements

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on West African Economic and Monetary Union presents external stability assessment report. The current account deficit declined in 2014. Although gross international reserve coverage has increased slightly, part of the current account deficit has been financed by a decline in commercial banks’ net foreign assets. Contingent on the implementation of government’s consolidation plans, and helped by a favorable oil price outlook, the current account deficit would further gradually decline and be matched by enough financial inflows in the medium term. According to various metrics, the real exchange rate appears to be broadly aligned with fundamentals. International reserve coverage should increase to provide stronger buffers against immediate short-term risks. Structural competitiveness and investment efficiency improvements will be essential to ensure that the planned large investment programs translate into growth and export gains as well as increased private inflows into the region.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

A decade-long hydrocarbon boom has led to a fast rise of average incomes and spurred a large scaling up of investment spending on infrastructure, although progress on social indicators has been slow. With hydrocarbon extraction shifting into a trend decline in the context of weak oil prices outlook and still high capital spending, the fiscal position has weakened and fiscal buffers diminished.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

A decade-long hydrocarbon boom has led to a fast rise of average incomes and spurred a large scaling up of investment spending on infrastructure, although progress on social indicators has been slow. With hydrocarbon extraction shifting into a trend decline in the context of weak oil prices outlook and still high capital spending, the fiscal position has weakened and fiscal buffers diminished.