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Mr. Tiago Cavalcanti, Daniel Da Mata, and Mr. Frederik G Toscani
This paper provides evidence of the causal impact of oil discoveries on development. Novel data on the drilling of 20,000 oil wells in Brazil allows us to exploit a quasi-experiment: Municipalities where oil was discovered constitute the treatment group, while municipalities with drilling but no discovery are the control group. The results show that oil discoveries significantly increase per capita GDP and urbanization. We find positive spillovers to non-oil sectors, specifically, an increase in services GDP which stems from higher output per worker. The results are consistent with greater local demand for non-tradable services driven by highly paid oil workers.

. Cavalcanti , T , D. da Mata , and F. Toscani , 2015 , Forthcoming . “ Winning the Oil Lottery: The Impact of Natural Resource Extraction on Growth. ” IMF Working Paper , International Monetary Fund , Washington, DC . Cust , J. , and T. Harding , 2014 , “ Institutions and the Location of Oil Exploration, ” Discussion Paper 127, OxCarre Research Paper . Dube , O. , and J. Vargas , 2013 , “ Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia, ” The Review of Economic Studies , 80 ( 4 ): 1384 – 1421 . Michaels , G

Mr. Tiago Cavalcanti, Daniel Da Mata, and Mr. Frederik G Toscani

This paper provides evidence of the causal impact of oil discoveries on development. Novel data on the drilling of 20,000 oil wells in Brazil allows us to exploit a quasi-experiment: Municipalities where oil was discovered constitute the treatment group, while municipalities with drilling but no discovery are the control group. The results show that oil discoveries significantly increase per capita GDP and urbanization. We find positive spillovers to non-oil sectors, specifically, an increase in services GDP which stems from higher output per worker. The results are consistent with greater local demand for non-tradable services driven by highly paid oil workers.

The December issue of the Research Bulletin looks at “Seven Questions about Climate Change” (Rabah Arezki and Akito Matsumoto). The Research Summaries review “Winning the Oil Lottery: The Impact of Natural Resource Extraction on Growth” (Tiago Cavalcanti, Daniel Da Mata, and Frederik Toscani) and “Malaysia: Achieving High-Income Status through Resilience and Inclusive Growth” (Alex Mourmouras and Naimh Sheridan). The issue also includes regular updates on new IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, IMF books, and the IMF Economic Review.

Front Matter Page IMF RESEARCH BULLETIN Volume 16, Number 4 December 2015 www.imf.org/researchbulletin In This Issue Q&A: Seven Questions about Climate Change Winning the Oil Lottery: The Impact of Natural Resource Extraction on Growth Malaysia: Achieving High-Income Status through Resilience and Inclusive Growth IMF Working Papers Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore IMF Economic Review Conference Call for Papers Staff Discussion Notes Online Subscriptions The IMF Research Bulletin is

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Roberto Guimarães-Filho, Gee Hee Hong Working Paper 16/58 Unconventional Policy Instruments in the New Keynesian Model Zineddine Alla, Raphael A. Espinoza, Atish R. Ghosh Working Paper 16/59 Stochastic Trends, Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Policy Karim Barhoumi, Reda Cherif, Nooman Rebei Working Paper 16/60 Can Government Demand Stimulate Private Investment? Evidence from U.S. Federal Procurement Shafik Hebous, Tom Zimmermann Working Paper 16/61 Winning the Oil Lottery: The Impact of Natural Resource Extraction on Growth Tiago

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
In the June 2016 issue of IMF Research Bulletin, Eugenio Cerutti interviews Lars E.O. Svensson. Lars, a professor at the Stockholm School of Economics, was a Visiting Scholar at the IMF. In the interview, he discusses monetary policy, financial stability, and life at the IMF. The Bulletin also features a listing of recent Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and key IMF publications. The table of contents from the latest issue of IMF Economic Review is also included.
Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan, Sandra Lizarazo, Marika Santoro, Frederik G. Toscani, and Mr. Mauricio Vargas

-Vazquez , R. M. , G. Esquivel , and N. Lustig . 2012 . “ The Rise and Fall of Income Inequality in Mexico, 1989–2010. ” United Nations University Working Paper 10/2012 , New York . Caselli. F. , and G. Michaels . 2013 . “ Do Oil Windfalls Improve Living Standards? Evidence from Brazil. ” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 51 : 208 – 38 . Cavalcanti , T. , D. Da Mata , and F. Toscani . 2019 . “ Winning the Oil Lottery: The Impact of Natural Resource Discoveries on Growth. ” Journal of Economic Growth 24 ( 1 ): 79 – 115 . 10

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

.” Natural Resource Governance Institute , New York . Benguria , F. , F. Safe , and S. Urzua . 2017 . “ Commodity Shocks, Firm-level Responses and Labor Market Dynamics .” Unpublished. Cavalcanti , Tiago , Daniel Da Mata , and Frederik Toscani . 2016 . “ Winning the Oil Lottery: The Impact of Natural Resource Discoveries on Growth .” IMF Working Paper 16/61 , International Monetary Fund , Washington DC . Caselli . F. , and G. Michaels . 2013 . “ Do Oil Windfalls Improve Living Standards? Evidence from Brazil .” American Economic

Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan

. Urzua . 2017 . “ Commodity Shocks, Firm-level Responses and Labor Market Dynamics .” Unpublished. Caselli . F. , and G. Michaels . 2013 . “ Do Oil Windfalls Improve Living Standards? Evidence from Brazil .” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 51 : 208 – 38 . Cavalcanti , T. , D. Da Mata , and F. Toscani . 2016 . “ Winning the Oil Lottery: The Impact of Natural Resource Discoveries on Growth .” IMF Working Paper 16/61 , International Monetary Fund , Washington, DC . Cornia , G. , and B. Martorano . 2013