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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

exchange rates. Title page FINLAND STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2021 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION January 7, 2022 KEY ISSUES Context : With strong policy support, Finland suffered a relatively mild economic contraction in 2020 followed by a swift recovery in 2021. Medium-term growth prospects are less strong, due to adverse demographics and low productivity gr o wth— trends that precede the pandemic. Public debt has increased due to pandemic-related support and will remain on a rising trajectory in the medium term, largely reflecting permanent spending

Mr. Babacar Sarr, Mokhtar Benlamine, and Zsuzsa Munkacsi
This paper studies the macroeconomic effects and sequencing of (LMRs) and product (PMRs) market reforms in Morocco. It finds that introducing LMRs and PMRs simultaneously would add about 2.5 percentage points (pp) of GDP growth and reduce unemployment by about 2.2 pp after five years. If sequencing is required, starting with PMRs would be more effective in boosting output, while starting with LMRs would reduce unemployment faster. Finally, increasing unemployment benefits would be more effective if this reform takes place after the implementation of LMRs and PMRs.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The Canadian economy was operating at close to capacity and had strong policy buffers when the COVID-19 pandemic hit. Economic and social restrictions put in place in March 2020 helped to mitigate the first wave of the virus, but they came at a significant cost. There was an unprecedented decline in activity in the first half of 2020, followed by a strong rebound in the third quarter as virus-related restrictions were eased. With the onset of the second wave of the virus in late September sparking renewed restrictions across the country, the recovery has slowed. Looking ahead, the strength and durability of the recovery hinges on the evolution of the pandemic.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Guatemala. The fiscal deficit is increasing owing to a sharp decline in revenues, associated with the contraction in imports and domestic demand. The policy interest rate has been cut. All quantitative performance criteria through June have been met. Inflation has fallen below the consultation band set in the program, triggering a consultation with IMF staff. Fiscal policy needs to continue striking a balance between avoiding a procyclical stance and maintaining debt sustainability.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Aruba managed to contain the pandemic in the first months of the outbreak but experienced a resurgence of new infections in the summer. The economic impact of COVID-19 is particularly severe given Aruba’s high dependency on tourism. While the authorities’ swift response has helped contain the human and economic damage, it could not avoid a severe GDP contraction.
International Monetary Fund
High uncertainty in general, and high policy uncertainty more specifically, can have important impact on global investment and output growth. Much of the recent policy uncertainty emanated from the United States and Europe—the world’s two largest economies. Spillovers from policy uncertainty can occur through several channels. Trade can be affected if increased policy uncertainty adversely affects economic activity and import demand in the United States and Europe. Policy uncertainty could also raise global risk aversion, resulting in sharp corrections in financial markets and capital outflows from emerging markets. This background note attempts to quantify the impact of U.S. and European policy uncertainty on other regions. Specifically, it addresses the following questions: What do we mean by policy uncertainty? How well can we measure it? How has policy uncertainty in the United States and Europe evolved during the past several decades? And how large are the spillovers to economic activity in other regions? The analysis suggests that sharp increases in U.S. and European policy uncertainty in the past have temporarily lowered investment and output in other regions to varying degrees. It also suggests that a marked decrease in policy uncertainty in the United States and Europe in the near term could help boost global investment and output.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

illustrate trade-offs between alternative policies . The analysis is conducted by calibrating the Debt, Investment, Gr o wth and Natural Disasters (DIGNAD) model of Marto, Papageorgiou, and Klyuev (2018) to Ugandan data. The DIGNAD model provides a framework to evaluate macroeconomic and financial implications of alternative investment programs and financing strategies. The production in the economy is carried out by firms in the tradable and non-tradable sectors, using private and public capital, besides labor. In the model, a natural disaster shock affects the economy

Mr. Abdoul A Wane

.0002 -0.0008 -0.0005 -0.0006 -0.0002 -0.002 (t-statistic) - 0.56 - 2.40 - 1.48 - 1.57 - 0.63 - 1.86 Lagged variable -0.06 -0.11 -0.10 -0.11 -0.10 -0.11 (t-statistic) - 2.94 - 4.33 - 4.01 - 4.31 - 4.01 - 3.78 Investment share minus adjusted labor gr o wth … … 0.02 … 0.03 … (t-statistic) … … 0.01 … 3.00 … Investment share … 0.03 … 0.03 … 0.038 (t-statistic) … 3.49 … 3.62 … 3

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

projected to remain broadly stable at around 60 percent of GDP over the medium term, while GFNs are projected to average around 12 percent of GDP. The debt to GDP ratio is lower than at the last Article IV consultation owing largely to the overperformance of nea r-ter m GDP gr o wth. In staff’s proposed fiscal package, d eb t rises very modestly in the near term but declines below the ba s eline over time. Fiscal balances . The public sector borrowing requirement (PSBR) is projected at 4.2 percent of GDP in 2021, in line with the authorities’ revised target. Their PSBR