The economic recovery in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to continue, but at a slower pace than envisaged in October 2018. This weaker outlook reflects domestic and external challenges. On the external side, the global expansion is losing momentum, including in China and the euro area, trade tensions remain elevated, global financial conditions have tightened, and commodity prices are expected to remain low. On the domestic front, security challenges, climate shocks, and policy uncertainty are hampering investment and weighing on economic prospects in several countries. Under current policies, medium-term average growth for the region is expected to continue to fall well short of what is needed to absorb the new entrants to the labor force and to deliver limited gains in living standards.
an economy; counterfactual analysis suggests that conflicts imply a drop in real GDP per capita of 15 to 20 percent over five years compared with a no-conflictscenario.
These country-level findings are corroborated by more granular satellite-based data on night lights at the state level, which show a statistically significant reduction in night-light activity in sub-Saharan Africa during conflicts, thereby indicating a strong local impact of conflicts on economic growth. In addition, state-level data indicate strong spillover effects of conflicts, suggesting