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Majdi Debbich
This paper uses an untapped source of satellite-recorded nightlights and gas flaring data to characterize the contraction of economic activity in Yemen throughout the ongoing conflict that erupted in 2015. Using estimated nightlights elasticities on a sample of 72 countries for real GDP and 28 countries for oil GDP over 6 years, I derive oil and non-oil GDP growth for Yemen. I show that real GDP contracted by a cumulative 24 percent over 2015-17 against 50 percent according to official figures. I also find that the impact of the conflict has been geographically uneven with economic activity contracting more in some governorates than in others.
Majdi Debbich

Front Matter Page Middle East and Central Asia Department Contents I. Introduction II. Data III. Regressions IV. Growth In Yemen V. Conclusion Figures Figure 1. Total nightlights in Yemen (100 = TNL in March 2012) Figure 2. VIIRS composite images of Yemen Figure 3. Gas flaring on oil production sites in Yemen from Google Earth Figure 4. Radiant heat from gas flaring in Yemen (100 = RH in March 2012) Figure 5. Real GDP in PPP (constant 2011 U.S. dollars) and total nightlights intensity Figure 6. Radiant heat from gas flaring

Charles Abuka, Ronnie K Alinda, Ms. Camelia Minoiu, José-Luis Peydró, and Mr. Andrea F Presbitero

List of figures 1. Macroeconomic developments in Uganda, 2009-2014 2. Monetary conditions and credit growth: 2010-2014 3. Real credit growth and monetary policy stance, 2005-2014 4. Monetary conditions, loan rejection rate, and lending rate: 2010-2014 5. Bank capital and liquidity: 2010-2014 6. Maps of district-level nightlights intensity List of tables 1. Industry composition of borrowers 2. Variables: Definitions and sources 3. Descriptive statistics 4. Extensive margin of credit supply and monetary conditions 5. Intensive margin of

Majdi Debbich

sources of energy allows to characterize the location and the type of activity detected. This paper is an attempt to use an untapped source of nightlights and gas flaring data from 2012–17 to assess oil and non-oil GDP growth and characterize the conflict-related contraction of economic activity in Yemen. The usefulness of nightlights intensity to assess economic outcomes has been extensively documented in the recent literature. In a seminal paper, Henderson et al. (2012) use a global sample of countries to uncover a positive and significant relationship between the

Charles Abuka, Ronnie K Alinda, Ms. Camelia Minoiu, José-Luis Peydró, and Mr. Andrea F Presbitero
The transmission of monetary policy to credit aggregates and the real economy can be impaired by weaknesses in the contracting environment, shallow financial markets, and a concentrated banking system. We empirically assess the bank lending channel in Uganda during 2010–2014 using a supervisory dataset of loan applications and granted loans. Our analysis focuses on a short period during which the policy rate rose by 1,000 basis points and then came down by 1,200 basis points. We find that an increase in interest rates reduces the supply of bank credit both on the extensive and intensive margins, and there is significant pass-through to retail lending rates. We document a strong bank balance sheet channel, as the lending behavior of banks with high capital and liquidity is different from that of banks with low capital and liquidity. Finally, we show the impact of monetary policy on real activity across districts depends on banking sector conditions. Overall, our results indicate significant real effects of the bank lending channel in developing countries.
Charles Abuka, Ronnie K Alinda, Ms. Camelia Minoiu, José-Luis Peydró, and Mr. Andrea F Presbitero

of interest rate changes on night lights depending on banking sector conditions in those districts. The results from estimating the reduced-form Equation 3 for a panel of 66 districts are reported in Table 9 . As a robustness check, in the last four specifications we exclude from the sample Kampala, the main commercial and manufacturing hub. We allow for real effects to be statistically discernible after 1-4 quarters. Figure 6: Maps of district-level nightlights intensity Notes : The figure depicts satellite data on nigh lights, yearly, during 2010

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

example provinces or districts. 4. To estimate GDP for Afghanistan using nightlight intensity we proceed as follows : a) Noting that agriculture is largely unlit and its contribution to GDP would not be picked up by nighttime lights, we use the official estimates of agriculture’s contribution to GDP, 6 7 To obtain estimates of the provincial shares of agriculture we proxy the relevant GDP shares of each province using the provincial distribution of rural population. b) Non-agricultural GDP is estimated using nighttime light intensity and is allocated to each

International Monetary Fund

economic activity in countries where output data are of poor quality . This includes measuring activity levels across regions within a country, where output data by region are often not produced. NTL data suggest that regional convergence of activity levels in LIDCs is ongoing . Data on the evolution of NTLs per capita between 2003 and 2010 indicate that regions with less nightlight intensity are catching up with more advanced regions. Infrastructure investments in LIDCs are associated with increased economic activity as measured by NTLs . Looking at nightlights

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents 2019 Article IV Consultation with Republic of Afghanistan and its Sixth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement. Despite difficult circumstances, the Afghan authorities have continued to demonstrate strong commitment to the economic program supported by the Extended Credit Facility arrangement. Given the uncertain outlook dominated by downside risks, policies should focus on maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability and putting the conditions in place for stronger and more inclusive growth, led by the private sector. The authorities have made progress with their self-reliance agenda, yet strong financial support from donors is needed to help Afghanistan stay on the path to greater prosperity. Fiscal policy should continue to target a broadly balanced budget, supported by fair and sustainable domestic revenue mobilization and strong financial support by donors. Resources should shift toward pro-growth and pro-poor outlays and create fiscal space to meet the country’s considerable development needs.
International Monetary Fund
This paper is the fifth in a series that examines macroeconomic developments and prospects in low-income developing countries (LIDCs). LIDCs are a group of 59 IMF member countries primarily defined by income per capita below a threshold level. LIDCs contain one fifth of the world’s population—1.5 billion people—but account for only 4 percent of global output. The first chapter of the paper discusses recent macroeconomic developments and trends across LIDCs and, using growth decompositions, explores the key drivers of growth performance in LIDCs. A second chapter examines the challenges faced by LIDCs in implementing a value-added tax system, generally seen as a key component of a strong national tax system. The third chapter discusses how financial safety nets can be appropriately tailored to the specific needs of LIDCs, recognizing that an effective safety net is important for ensuring financial stability and underpinning public confidence in the financial system, thereby promoting financial intermediation.