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International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

linearly with age in late adulthood. Figure 1 shows this pattern for selected cohorts of women born between 1860 and 1940 for various European countries—Belgium, Denmark, France, The Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden—(panel 1) and for France alone (panel 2). Although the level of mortality has changed substantially over time, the evolution of mortality rates by age is very similar across many countries and over time (these patterns are similar though not identical for men). Mortality curves also display an “adolescent hump,” especially visible in cohorts born in the 19

We propose a dynamic production function of population health and mortality from birth onwards. Our parsimonious model provides an excellent fit for the mortality and survival curves for both primate and human populations since 1816. The model sheds light on the dynamics behind many phenomena documented in the literature, including (i) the existence and evolution of mortality gradients across socio-economic statuses, (ii) non-monotonic dynamic effects of in-utero shocks, (iii) persistent or “scarring” effects of wars and (iv) mortality displacement after large temporary shocks such as extreme weather.
Ruchir Agarwal and Tristan Reed
A lack of timely financing for purchases of vaccines and other health products impeded the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on analysis of contract signature and delivery dates in COVID-19 vaccine advance purchase agreements, this paper finds that 60-75 percent of the delay in vaccine deliveries to low- and middle-income countries is attributable to their signing purchase agreements later than high-income countries, which placed them further behind in the delivery line. A pandemic Advance Commitment Facility with access to a credit line on day-zero of the next pandemic could allow low- and middle-income countries to secure orders earlier, ensuring a much faster and equitable global response than during COVD-19. The paper outlines four options for a financier to absorb some or all of the risk associated with the credit line and discusses how the credit would complement other proposals to strengthen the financing architecture for pandemic preparedness, prevention, and response.

mortality over the lifetime is remarkably similar across human populations and in fact across most primates. Because of this regularity, demographers have searched for a “unified” model of mortality that would predict mortality from birth to death at least since the early 19th century ( Gompertz, 1825 ). Like much of the following literature (e.g. Li and Anderson, 2013 ) Gompertz’s model accounts for mortality only after a certain age , focusing on the roughly log-linear portion of the mortality curve after age 30–40. There are a few exceptions. An early model proposed

Ruchir Agarwal and Tristan Reed

–6736(21)02867–1 Castillo , Juan Camilo , Amrita Ahuja , Susan Athey , Arthur Baker , Eric Budish , Tasneem Chipty , Rachel Glennerster , Scott Duke Kominers , Michael Kremer , Greg Larson , Jean Lee , Canice Prendergast , Christopher M. Snyder , Alex Tabarrok , Brandon Joel Tan , Witold Więcek . ( 2021 ). “ Market design to accelerate Covid-19 vaccine supply .” Science 371 ( 6534 ): 1107 – 1109 . Demombynes , Gabriel. ( 2020 ). COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves