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Cover IMF Research Perspectives
Understanding Lifelong Mortality
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

linearly with age in late adulthood. Figure 1 shows this pattern for selected cohorts of women born between 1860 and 1940 for various European countries—Belgium, Denmark, France, The Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden—(panel 1) and for France alone (panel 2). Although the level of mortality has changed substantially over time, the evolution of mortality rates by age is very similar across many countries and over time (these patterns are similar though not identical for men). Mortality curves also display an “adolescent hump,” especially visible in cohorts born in the 19

Keywords:
mortality curve; lifetime cohort mortality rates; mortality evolution; health model; mortality profile; Aging; COVID-19
Cover IMF Research Perspectives
IMF Research Perspectives: Spring/Summer 2021
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
IMF Research Perspectives: Spring/Summer 2021
Keywords:
IMF research perspective; government spending multiplier; R&D effort; IMF CSF; central bank financing; COVID-19; Bank credit; Fiscal stance; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Unified Model of Cohort Mortality for Economic Analysis
We propose a dynamic production function of population health and mortality from birth onwards. Our parsimonious model provides an excellent fit for the mortality and survival curves for both primate and human populations since 1816. The model sheds light on the dynamics behind many phenomena documented in the literature, including (i) the existence and evolution of mortality gradients across socio-economic statuses, (ii) non-monotonic dynamic effects of in-utero shocks, (iii) persistent or “scarring” effects of wars and (iv) mortality displacement after large temporary shocks such as extreme weather.
Keywords:
Mortality; In-utero shocks; Selection; Scarring; WP; health stock; health distribution; investment schedule; log mortality rates; health shock
Cover IMF Working Papers
Finance Vaccine Equity: Funding for Day-Zero of the Next Pandemic
Ruchir Agarwal and Tristan Reed
A lack of timely financing for purchases of vaccines and other health products impeded the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on analysis of contract signature and delivery dates in COVID-19 vaccine advance purchase agreements, this paper finds that 60-75 percent of the delay in vaccine deliveries to low- and middle-income countries is attributable to their signing purchase agreements later than high-income countries, which placed them further behind in the delivery line. A pandemic Advance Commitment Facility with access to a credit line on day-zero of the next pandemic could allow low- and middle-income countries to secure orders earlier, ensuring a much faster and equitable global response than during COVD-19. The paper outlines four options for a financier to absorb some or all of the risk associated with the credit line and discusses how the credit would complement other proposals to strengthen the financing architecture for pandemic preparedness, prevention, and response.
Keywords:
COVID-19; pandemics; systemic risks; economic crisis; pandemic advance commitment facility; financing vaccine equity; working paper series; health product; delivery data; Lines of credit; Global; emergency financing facility; pandemic bond; prevention, preparedness, and response; pandemic preparedness partnership; purchase contract date; signing purchase agreements; next pandemic
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Unified Model of Cohort Mortality for Economic Analysis

mortality over the lifetime is remarkably similar across human populations and in fact across most primates. Because of this regularity, demographers have searched for a “unified” model of mortality that would predict mortality from birth to death at least since the early 19th century ( Gompertz, 1825 ). Like much of the following literature (e.g. Li and Anderson, 2013 ) Gompertz’s model accounts for mortality only after a certain age , focusing on the roughly log-linear portion of the mortality curve after age 30–40. There are a few exceptions. An early model proposed

Keywords:
Mortality; In-utero shocks; Selection; Scarring; WP; health stock; health distribution; investment schedule; log mortality rates; health shock; infant mortality rate; health endowment; health investment; health deficits model; health distribution shift
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financing Vaccine Equity: Funding for day-zero of the next pandemic
Ruchir Agarwal and Tristan Reed

–6736(21)02867–1 Castillo , Juan Camilo , Amrita Ahuja , Susan Athey , Arthur Baker , Eric Budish , Tasneem Chipty , Rachel Glennerster , Scott Duke Kominers , Michael Kremer , Greg Larson , Jean Lee , Canice Prendergast , Christopher M. Snyder , Alex Tabarrok , Brandon Joel Tan , Witold Więcek . ( 2021 ). “ Market design to accelerate Covid-19 vaccine supply .” Science 371 ( 6534 ): 1107 – 1109 . https://0-www-science-org.library.svsu.edu/doi/10.1126/science.abg0889 Demombynes , Gabriel. ( 2020 ). COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves

Keywords:
pandemic advance commitment Facility; emergency financing facility; pandemic bond; prevention, preparedness, and response; pandemic preparedness partnership; COVID-19; Lines of credit; Global; health product