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Mr. Rodrigo O. Valdes and Mr. Ilan Goldfajn
This paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises. The results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power in explaining crises. However, although expected depreciation obtained from survey data partially takes different measures of exchange rate misalignment into consideration, expectations fail to anticipate currency crises.
Anna Ter-Martirosyan, Ms. Sally Chen, Mr. Lawrence Dwight, Ms. Mwanza Nkusu, Mr. Mehdi Raissi, and Ms. Ashleigh Watson

Template Figure 5. Case Study: Separating Foreign-Owned Resource Sector Figure A4.1. Exchange Rate Misalignment Estimates Under the MB and ERER Approaches, Customized (vertical axis) vs. Benchmark Model (horizontal axis) Figure A4.2. Parameter Sensitivity Analysis Under MB Approach Figure A4.3. Parameter Sensitivity Analysis Under ERER Approach Figure A5.1. Financial Centers Figure A5.2. Cumulative Current Account Balance and Changes in NFA Figure A6.1. Separating a Foreign-Owned Resource Sector Boxes Box 1. The Pilot External Sector Report and

Anna Ter-Martirosyan, Ms. Sally Chen, Mr. Lawrence Dwight, Ms. Mwanza Nkusu, Mr. Mehdi Raissi, and Ms. Ashleigh Watson

tend to appreciate the RER, Barajas and others (2010) suggest standard Dutch disease effects of remittances are substantially weakened or even overturned depending on factors such as the degree of openness of the economy, the share of tradable goods in consumption, and the countercyclicality of remittances. Their panel-based econometric analysis indicates that ERER appreciation in response to sustained remittance flows tends to be quantitatively small. 9 “Average Directional Difference” measures the extent to which exchange rate misalignment estimates may be

Anna Ter-Martirosyan, Ms. Sally Chen, Mr. Lawrence Dwight, Ms. Mwanza Nkusu, Mr. Mehdi Raissi, and Ms. Ashleigh Watson
External Assessments in Special Cases presents the pilot External Balances Assessment methodology developed by IMF staff for estimating current account and exchange rate gaps for a group of advanced and emerging market economies, and discusses modifications to take account of special cases. Different approaches to external assessments for countries with special circumstances are evaluated, and some tools presented that could be used to inform sound judgment on the part of those conducting such assessments.