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Mr. Ruben V Atoyan, Lone Engbo Christiansen, Allan Dizioli, Mr. Christian H Ebeke, Mr. Nadeem Ilahi, Ms. Anna Ilyina, Mr. Gil Mehrez, Mr. Haonan Qu, Ms. Faezeh Raei, Ms. Alaina P Rhee, and Ms. Daria V Zakharova

REFERENCES ANNEXES I. Quality of Data and Measurement Issues II. Migration from CIS to Russia III. Migration Trends in Portugal IV. The Econometrics of Assessing the Effects of Emigration and Remittances

Benjamin Hilgenstock and Zsoka Koczan

until 2050 (see European Commission 2017 ). The baseline scenario would imply, for instance, an increase in Germany’s migrant stock from the current 14 percent to 29 percent of the population. The high (low) migration scenarios refer to a one-third increase (decrease) in net migration relative to the baseline (so for Germany would result in migrant stocks of 25 and 33 percent of the population, respectively, by 2050). The United Nations baseline scenario assumes a continuation of recent migration trends for nonrefugee flows until 2050, but also considers the

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

. Over the past decades, Poland enjoyed a steady increase of the working-age population . The recent reversal of this trend poses a challenge for growth going forward, as labor supply will become constrained. There are mitigating factors which, if managed properly, may smooth the transition to a new reality. Labor force participation is low by international standards, suggesting some scope for more efficient use of the working-age population. Moreover, recent migration trends suggest that Poland may become a recipient country. Meanwhile, recent policies seem to have

International Monetary Fund

since 2002. High-skill workers are increasingly among those leaving. Their determinants are analyzed in the next section. The inflow of foreign workers has decreased. 1/ Inward migration less outward migration. 1/ Inward migration less outward migration. 35. The current shortages and migration trends are expected to persist . The population is shrinking earlier and aging faster than initially expected, as net migration has been below the natural population growth for the past five years. With fewer workers to hire and fewer consumers with large