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Mr. Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia, Mr. Ermal Hitaj, Mr. Montfort Mlachila, Arina Viseth, and Mustafa Yenice

Introduction and Summary Migration from and within sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is an important macroeconomic issue with spillovers for both sending and receiving countries. Amid rapid population growth, migration in sub-Saharan Africa has been increasing briskly over the last 20 years. While the migration rate—migration-to-total population—has remained stable at about 2 percent, the region has doubled its population between 1990 and 2013, recording the fastest population growth in the world. Up to the 1990s, the stock of migrants—citizens of one country living

Mr. Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia, Mr. Ermal Hitaj, Mr. Montfort Mlachila, Arina Viseth, and Mustafa Yenice
Amid rapid population growth, migration in sub-Saharan Africa has been increasing briskly over the last 20 years. Up to the 1990s, the stock of migrants—citizens of one country living in another country—was dominated by intraregional migration, but over the last 15 years, migration outside the region has picked up sharply. In the coming decades, sub-Saharan African migration will be shaped by an ongoing demographic transition involving an enlargement of the working-age population, and migration outside the region, in particular to advanced economies, is set to continue expanding. This note explores the main drivers of sub-Saharan African migration, focusing on migration outside the region, as this has greater global spillovers. It finds that the economic impact of migration for the region occurs mainly through two channels. First, the migration of young and educated workers—brain drain—takes a toll as human capital is already scarce in the region, although some recent studies suggest that migration may have also a positive effect—brain gain. Second, remittances represent an important source of foreign exchange and income in a number of sub-Saharan African countries, contribute to the alleviation of poverty, and help smooth business cycles.
Mr. Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia and Mr. Montfort Mlachila

composition has changed markedly: in 1990 about 40 percent moved for economic reasons, which had risen by 2013 to 90 percent. But the rate of global migration in sub-Saharan Africa is the lowest in the world, at 0.7 percent of the region’s total population. That rate is about seven times larger in Latin America and the Caribbean and four times larger in the Middle East and northern Africa. Why move? Migration within Africa is driven mostly by geographic proximity, differences in income, and war in the home country, along with cultural links and environmental factors

Francisco Arizala, Mr. Matthieu Bellon, Ms. Margaux MacDonald, Mr. Montfort Mlachila, and Mustafa Yenice
After close to two decades of strong economic activity, overall growth in sub-Saharan Africa decelerated markedly in 2015–16 as the largest economies experienced negative or flat growth. Regional growth started recovering in 2017, but the question remains of how trends in the economies stuck in low gear will spill over to the countries that have maintained robust growth. This note illuminates the discussion by identifying growth spillover channels. The focus is on trade, banking, financial, remittance, investment, fiscal, and security channels, which are the most prominent and most likely to transmit growth trends across borders. In addition to bringing together findings from a broad array of existing research, the note identifies countries that are the most likely sources of regional spillovers and those that are most likely to be impacted, and provides estimates for the size of these channels. It finds that intraregional trade and remittance flows are an important channel for growth spillovers, while banking channels are less important but will remain a risk going forward. Finally, the note documents other important spillover channels through financial markets contagion, revenue-sharing arrangements in fiscal unions, commodity-pricing policies, corporate investment, and forced migration. The main takeaway is that the level of interdependence among sub-Saharan countries is higher than is generally assumed. Consequently, there is a need for additional emphasis on regional surveillance and spillover analysis, along with traditional bilateral surveillance.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper focuses on millennials who are increasingly looking to find their way in the sharing economy, a phenomenon made possible by the emergence of digital platforms that facilitate the matching of buyer and seller. Jobs in the sharing economy—like driving for Uber or Lyft—help some millennials make ends meet, even if such temporary gigs are a far cry from the fulltime jobs with traditional pension plans and other benefits their parents often enjoyed. This generation also enthusiastically embraces the services of the sharing economy, which provides access to everything from beds to cars to boats without the hassle of ownership. Loath to buy big-ticket items such as cars and houses, millennials have sharply different spending habits from those of preceding generations. Millennials confront obstacles to prosperity that their parents didn’t face. They are better educated than previous generations—but in today’s world, that is not enough to guarantee financial success.
Amar Bhattacharya, Maksym Ivanyna, William Oman, and Nicholas Stern
Climate change is a major threat to the sustainability and inclusiveness of our societies, and to the planet’s habitability. A just transition to a low-carbon economy is the only viable way forward. This paper reviews the climate change challenge. It stresses the criticality of systems changes (energy, transport, urban, land use, water) in a climate-challenged world, and the importance of infrastructure investment geared toward such systems changes. The key policies to enable the transition are: public spending on and investment frameworks for sustainable infrastructure, pricing carbon, regulations, promoting sustainable use of natural resources, scaling up and aligning finance with climate objectives, low-carbon industrial and innovation policies, building resilience and adaptation, better measurement of well-being and sustainability, and providing information and education on climate risks. Implemented well, climate action would unlock the inclusive growth story of the 21st century, making our societies more sustainable, inclusive, and prosperous.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

macroeconomic fundamentals, these variables are first purged from this information in a separate regression to avoid colinearity. The results are robust to other country sovereign ratings, such as the ones produced by Fitch and Moody’s. Box 1.3. Migration and Remittance Flows in Sub-Saharan Africa 1 Migration happens predominantly within the region Amid rapid population growth, migration in sub-Saharan African has increased considerably in recent decades. In 1990, 10 million sub-Saharan Africans lived outside their own country; by 2013, that number had grown to 20

Francisco Arizala, Mr. Matthieu Bellon, Ms. Margaux MacDonald, Mr. Montfort Mlachila, and Mustafa Yenice

website at . 16 For a detailed discussion of the economic determinants of migration in sub-Saharan Africa, see Gonzalez-Garcia and others (2016) . 17 For instance, the United Nations Development Programme estimates the cost of hosting refugees and asylum seekers in Uganda at about US$320 million, or about 1.3 percent of GDP.

Amar Bhattacharya, Maksym Ivanyna, William Oman, and Nicholas Stern

--). Climate-induced migration in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America is expected to rise by over 140 million people by 2050 – around 2.8 percent of the population of these regions ( Kumari Rigaud, et al. 2018 --). Both legal and economic institutions must be strengthened to handle these increased, and often rapid and unpredictable migration flows. For example, the Platform on Disaster Displacement works to promote these institutions at country and international levels. 50 -- Sea level rise may lead to the unprecedented disappearance of some sovereign states

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

humanitarian aid aimed at addressing the immediate needs of refugees and those displaced within their own countries, and of scaled-up development assistance to the region as a whole. Based on Rother and others (2016). Box 4.3. Migration in Sub-Saharan Africa In the coming decades sub-Saharan African migration will be shaped by a profound demographic transition that has already begun. The working-age population is growing more rapidly than the population overall, which means migration outside the region is set to continue to expand. Key Trends Amid rapid