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Lukas Boer, Mr. Andrea Pescatori, and Martin Stuermer
The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total value of metals production would rise more than four-fold for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the total value of crude oil production. Metals are a potentially important input into integrated assessments models of climate change.
Lukas Boer, Mr. Andrea Pescatori, and Martin Stuermer

countries. In the net-zero emissions scenario, the demand boom could lead to a more than fourfold increase in the value of metals production—totaling US$ 13 trillion accumulated over the next two decades for the four “energy transition” metals alone, providing significant windfalls to commodity producers. This could rival the roughly estimated value of oil production in a net-zero emissions scenario over that same period. There is high uncertainty around the underlying metals consumption scenarios. Demand will depend first on technological change that is hard to predict