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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the growth in Finland has turned tepidly positive again following a deep recession. GDP increased by 0.2 percent in 2015 driven by stronger private consumption and a rebound in investment. Although net export growth was weak, falling oil prices contributed to the nominal trade balance shifting into surplus, reducing the current account deficit. Better-than-expected fiscal performance brought the deficit back under the 3 percent Stability and Growth Pact limit in 2015. The recovery is likely to continue, but growth is set to remain slow at about 0.9 percent in 2016 and 1.1 percent in 2017. This outlook is subject to downside risks.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

buffer into the toolbox. Additional instruments shall be considered based on the review of the EU legislation, as well as further analytical work by the authorities assessing experiences from other countries. Staffs suggestion that the FIN-FSA's macroprudential policy mandate should be clarified and strengthened in the law is not fully shared by the authorities, some of which consider the existing legislation adequate. Staffs advice to formalize the inter-agency strategy on contingency planning and crisis management is well noted. Work to this effect is already

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

) and borrowers' debt service capacity (e.g., a loan-to-income cap) should also be considered. To strengthen the decision making framework, the macroprudential policy mandate of the FIN-FSA should be more clearly defined. Also, a household loan registry should be created to facilitate macroprudential policy analysis. 30. Better coordinated contingency planning and deeper cross-border cooperation are also key. To mitigate risks from regional linkages and the branchification of Nordea it will be key that the pending agreement on systemic branches between the key

Jacek Osinski, Katharine Seal, and Mr. Lex Hoogduin