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International Monetary Fund
This paper presents an Ex Post Assessment of Long-Term IMF Engagement in Ethiopia. IMF involvement since 1992 helped underpin the authorities’ gradualist policies. Initially, IMF-supported programs aimed at stabilizing the economy and breaking with the legacy of central planning. Later programs emphasized structural reform to support sustainable high growth and poverty reduction. Although macroeconomic stability has been largely achieved, structural reform was gradual and piecemeal, especially under the Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility. Many of the most immediate and distortionary policies of the centrally planned past have also been overhauled.
International Monetary Fund
This paper assesses Armenia’s Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). Under the previous PRGF-supported program, Armenia accomplished macroeconomic stability, rapid growth, and a significant reduction in poverty. To consolidate these gains, there is a need to address the remaining structural weaknesses and implementation gaps as identified in the ex post assessment of Armenia’s long-term IMF engagement. The 2005 reform agenda is ambitious and focuses on fiscal and financial sector reforms. Armenia’s economic outlook is favorable, although not without risks.
Mr. Christian Mumssen, Yasemin Bal Gunduz, Mr. Christian H Ebeke, and Ms. Linda Kaltani
This paper studies the short and longer-term impact of IMF engagement in Low-Income Countries (LICs) over nearly three decades. In contrast to earlier studies, we focus on a sample composed exclusively of LICs and disentangle the different effects of IMF longer-term engagement and short-term financing using a propensity score matching approach to control for selection bias. Our results indicate that longer-term IMF support (at least five years of program engagement per decade) helped LICs sustain economic growth and boost resilience by building fiscal buffers. Interestingly, the size of IMF financing has no significant impact on economic growth, possibly pointing to the prominent role of IMF policy advice and institutional capacity building in the context of longer-term engagement. We also present evidence that the short-term IMF engagement through augmentations of existing programs or short-term and emergency facilities is positively associated with a wide range of macroeconomic outcomes. Notably, the IMF financial support has the greatest impact on short-term growth when LICs are faced with substantial macroeconomic imbalances or exogenous shocks.
International Monetary Fund

This paper assesses Armenia’s Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). Under the previous PRGF-supported program, Armenia accomplished macroeconomic stability, rapid growth, and a significant reduction in poverty. To consolidate these gains, there is a need to address the remaining structural weaknesses and implementation gaps as identified in the ex post assessment of Armenia’s long-term IMF engagement. The 2005 reform agenda is ambitious and focuses on fiscal and financial sector reforms. Armenia’s economic outlook is favorable, although not without risks.

International Monetary Fund

This paper assesses Armenia’s Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). Under the previous PRGF-supported program, Armenia accomplished macroeconomic stability, rapid growth, and a significant reduction in poverty. To consolidate these gains, there is a need to address the remaining structural weaknesses and implementation gaps as identified in the ex post assessment of Armenia’s long-term IMF engagement. The 2005 reform agenda is ambitious and focuses on fiscal and financial sector reforms. Armenia’s economic outlook is favorable, although not without risks.

International Monetary Fund

This paper assesses Armenia’s Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). Under the previous PRGF-supported program, Armenia accomplished macroeconomic stability, rapid growth, and a significant reduction in poverty. To consolidate these gains, there is a need to address the remaining structural weaknesses and implementation gaps as identified in the ex post assessment of Armenia’s long-term IMF engagement. The 2005 reform agenda is ambitious and focuses on fiscal and financial sector reforms. Armenia’s economic outlook is favorable, although not without risks.

International Monetary Fund

This paper presents an Ex Post Assessment of Long-Term IMF Engagement in Ethiopia. IMF involvement since 1992 helped underpin the authorities’ gradualist policies. Initially, IMF-supported programs aimed at stabilizing the economy and breaking with the legacy of central planning. Later programs emphasized structural reform to support sustainable high growth and poverty reduction. Although macroeconomic stability has been largely achieved, structural reform was gradual and piecemeal, especially under the Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility. Many of the most immediate and distortionary policies of the centrally planned past have also been overhauled.

Mr. Christian Mumssen, Yasemin Bal Gunduz, Mr. Christian H Ebeke, and Ms. Linda Kaltani

Front Matter Page Strategy, Policy, and Review Department Contents Abbreviations and Acronyms I. Overview II. Overview of the Empirical Literature and Contribution of the Current Study III. Impact of Longer-Term IMF Engagement in LICs IV. Impact of Short-Term IMF Engagement in LICs V. Conclusions Tables 1. Summary of Literature on the Impact of IMF Programs, 2000–12 2. Impact of Longer-Term IMF Engagement on Economic Performance 3. Determinants of Long-Term Real Per Capita GDP Growth 4. Results: Impact of Short-Term IMF

Yasemin Bal Gunduz, Mr. Christian H Ebeke, Ms. Burcu Hacibedel, Ms. Linda Kaltani, Ms. Vera V Kehayova, Mr. Chris Lane, Mr. Christian Mumssen, Miss Nkunde Mwase, and Mr. Joseph Thornton

bias. Finally, the paper investigates a few potential channels of transmission through which longer-term IMF engagement can affect long-term growth and distinguishes between effects due to IMF financing versus the role of its policy advice and capacity development. Impact of Longer-Term IMF Engagement in Low-Income Countries As noted in Chapter 2 , macroeconomic conditions have improved substantially over the last two decades for most LICs, regardless of whether they were engaged with the IMF. 10 On average, LICs experienced significant long

Mr. Christian Mumssen, Yasemin Bal Gunduz, Mr. Christian H Ebeke, and Ms. Linda Kaltani

capita GDP growth, fiscal balances, foreign investment, and social spending compared to LICs without such programs. At the same time, countries with longer-term IMF engagement tended to attain significant reductions in poverty, income inequality, inflation, and growth volatility relative to their control group. A further noteworthy finding is that, controlling for the presence of longer-term IMF engagement, the scale of IMF financing does not appear to be significant in determining economic growth over long time frames. This finding may point to the role of the IMF