Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 55 items for :

  • "lockdown stringency" x
Clear All
Mr. Francesco Caselli, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Mr. Damiano Sandri, and Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo

Front Matter Page Statistics Department Contents 1 Introduction 2 The COVID-19 crises in Italy, Portugal, and Spain 3 A unique dataset 4 Heterogeneous effects on mobility across gender 4.1 Regression discontinuity 4.2 Local projections 5 Heterogeneous effects on mobility across age groups 5.1 Regression discontinuity 5.2 Local projections 6 Robustness 7 Conclusions References A Lockdown stringency dynamics List of Figures 1 Mobility Levels from Apple, Google, and Vodafone 2 Mobility and Lockdown Stringency 3

Mr. Francesco Caselli, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Mr. Damiano Sandri, and Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo
Lockdowns and voluntary social distancing led to significant reduction in people’s mobility. Yet, there is scant evidence on the heterogeneous effects across segments of the population. Using unique mobility indicators based on anonymized and aggregate data provided by Vodafone for Italy, Portugal, and Spain, we find that lockdowns had a larger impact on the mobility of women and younger cohorts. Younger people also experienced a sharper drop in mobility in response to rising COVID-19 infections. Our findings, which are consistent across estimation methods and robust to a variety of tests, warn about a possible widening of gender and inter-generational inequality and provide important inputs for the formulation of targeted policies.
Mr. Francesco Caselli, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Weicheng Lian, and Mr. Damiano Sandri
Using high-frequency proxies for economic activity over a large sample of countries, we show that the economic crisis during the first seven months of the COVID-19 pandemic was only partly due to government lockdowns. Economic activity also contracted because of voluntary social distancing in response to higher infections. We also show that lockdowns can substantially reduce COVID-19 infections, especially if they are introduced early in a country's epidemic. Despite involving short-term economic costs, lockdowns may thus pave the way to a faster recovery by containing the spread of the virus and reducing voluntary social distancing. Finally, we document that lockdowns entail decreasing marginal economic costs but increasing marginal benefits in reducing infections. This suggests that tight short-lived lockdowns are preferable to mild prolonged measures.
Mr. Francesco Caselli, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Mr. Damiano Sandri, and Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo

relative to the oldest age category of 65 and above. The charts suggest that lockdowns reduce more strongly the mobility of working age people relative to people aged 65 and above. The rest of the analysis will test more formally for these patterns using RD approaches and local projections. Figure 2: Mobility and Lockdown Stringency Notes: Panel (a) presents a binned scatter plot showing the mobility differential between women and men over the stringency of lockdowns during the period of analysis. Panel (b) to (d) present similar scatter plots but considering the

Mr. Nicola Pierri and Mr. Yannick Timmer

Front Matter Page Contents 1 Introduction 2 Related Literature 3 Data Sources 4 Descriptive Patterns 5 Results 5.1 Mobility and Economic Outcomes 5.2 Technology, Mobility, and Unemployment 5.2. 1 Individual Level Data 5.3 Counterfactual 6 Conclusion References FIGURES 1: Unemployment and Mobility in the US 2: Unemployment and Lockdown Stringency in the US 3: Lockdown across States 4: Mobility and Lockdown in the US 5: Mobility around Lockdown Tightening 6: Mobility around Lockdown Loosening 7: Lockdown

Mariya Brussevich, Mr. Chris Papageorgiou, and Pauline Wibaux

.g., as in the Philippines in April of 2020) is associated with 19 percentage point drop in exports and almost 8 percentage point drop in imports. Trade with low-income countries was less responsive to lockdown stringency, however, given later timing of the virus spread and limited enforcement of lockdown orders in these countries. Second, the shock was short-lived, with the effect of lockdowns dissipating quickly in the third quarter of 2020. Third, we find that trade values decreased in response to the shock primarily due to the adjustments in volumes, with slower

Mariya Brussevich, Mr. Chris Papageorgiou, and Pauline Wibaux
This paper uses granular customs data from France to investigate propagation of the COVID-19 shock along the supply chains in 2020. It quantifies the effect of the COVID-19 shock on trade adjustment and identifies mitigating and amplifying factors contributing to French firms’ heterogeneous adjustment paths. Early in the pandemic, firms mainly responded to global lockdowns and spread of the virus by reducing trade volumes (intensive margin) as opposed to exiting from import and export markets (ex-tensive margin). However, adjustment along the extensive margin played a more important role in trade with developing countries. It is shown that the impact of lockdowns was stronger for final consumer goods and the trade recovery was predominantly demand-driven. More automated, inventory-intensive, older, and medium-sized firms were more insulated from the shock, whereas firms’ reliance on air transportation for shipping goods amplified the shock. Trade bans and promotion measures implemented by governments in response to the pandemic had little impact on aggregate trade flows.