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Andras Komaromi

Front Matter Page Asia and Pacific Department and Innovation Lab Unit Contents I. Introduction II. A Shift-Share Design on High-Frequency Trade Data III. High-Frequency Data and Variable Construction IV. Results V. Indirect Supply-Chain Effects Figures 1. Lockdown Exposure and Import Growth: The cases of Korea and the U.S. 2. Construction of Port-to-Port Trade Volumes from AIS data 3. The Distribution of Travel Times in Shipping 4. Lockdown Spillovers: Strong but Short-Lived 5. Ratio of Actual v. Counterfactual World Trade

Andras Komaromi

both to our problem and our high-frequency dataset. We argue that trying to estimate lockdown spillovers using standard sources of monthly bilateral trade data is likely to be elusive. Figure 3 aims to convey this intuition by showing the distribution of country-to-country travel times. The left panel in Figure 3 shows the empirical density of international travel times. Around 93% of all country-to-country voyages take place within a 30-day window. The right panel in Figure 3 shows, in turn, the volume of trade taking place under each different travel time. As

Andras Komaromi
World trade contracted dramatically during the global economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Disruptions in international supply chains were widely reported as governments imposed containment measures (lockdowns) to halt the spread of the disease. At the same time, demand declined as households and firms scaled back spending. This paper attempts to disentangle the supply and demand channels in trade by quantifying the causal effect of supply spillovers from lockdowns. We utilize a novel dataset of daily bilateral seaborne trade, and design a shift-share identification strategy that leverages geography-induced cargo delivery lags to track the transmission of supply disruptions across space. We find strong but short-lived supply spillovers of lockdowns through international trade. Moreover, the evidence is suggestive of the downstream propagation of countries’ lockdowns through global supply chains.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

economics resurfaced: Were the observed changes in trade volumes driven mostly by supply or demand effects? In our paper on lockdown spillovers during the pandemic, we separate the supply and demand channels and trace the effects of lockdown-related supply-side disruptions through the trade network. A high-frequency data set built from radio signals High-frequency data are key to tracking daily changes in lockdowns across the globe. Likewise, we estimate that more than 90 percent of international trade voyages take place in a period of less than 30 days

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Global Crisis STAFF APPRAISAL BOXES 1. China’s Exit Strategy From COVID-19 2. Impact of China’s Monetary and Credit Policies Amid COVID-19 3. Tracking Economic Activity in China 4. LockdownsSpillovers Through Trade 5. Progress on Structural Reforms 6. The Effects of Technological Decoupling 7. China’s Fiscal Policy: A Medium-Term Rebuilding 8. China’s Development of a Central Bank Digital Currency 9. Summary of the Communique on China’s 14th 5-Year Plan FIGURES 1. Recent Developments—The V-Shaped Recovery 2. Rebalancing

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This issue of the IMF Research Perspective looks at the inter-connectedness of the world economic system and how diverse shocks can affect global supply chains. The articles in this issue track the way COVID-19 triggered disruptions in the supply chain and explains why trade networks are so difficult to disentangle. However, the pandemic is not the only event affecting global supply chains; cross-border spillovers of technology wars and natural disasters are other factors to consider. The overarching message from these articles is clear: there is a need for international cooperation to deal with the consequences of these shocks—whether it is ending the COVID-19 pandemic or mitigating climate change.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

, following the IMF Assessing Reserve Adequacy (ARA) metric; Colombia also has access to the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) from the Fund. 1 However, external vulnerabilities remain high while significant external buffers help manage the attendant risks associated with them. 2. The pandemic led to Colombia’s first recession in over 20 years and the largest on record . GDP fell by 7 percent in 2020 in response to lockdowns, spillovers from lower oil prices, and the collapse of global growth ( Figure 1 and Table 2 ). The severe downturn and the need to respond to the

Mr. Shekhar Aiyar, Mr. Davide Malacrino, Mr. Adil Mohommad, and Mr. Andrea F Presbitero
While standard demand factors perform well in predicting historical trade patterns, they fail conspicuously in 2020, when pandemic-specific factors played a key role above and beyond demand. Prediction errors from a multilateral import demand model in 2020 vary systematically with the health preparedness of trade partners, suggesting that pandemic-response policies have international spillovers. Bilateral product-level data covering about 95 percent of global goods trade reveals sizable negative international spillovers to trade from supply disruptions due to domestic lockdowns. These international spillovers accounted for up to 60 percent of the observed decline in trade in the early phase of the pandemic, but their effect was shortlived, concentrated among goods produced in key global value chains, and mitigated by the availability of remote working and the size of the fiscal response to the pandemic.
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar, Mr. Davide Malacrino, Mr. Adil Mohommad, and Mr. Andrea F Presbitero

exporting and importing countries on bilateral trade. 5 With respect to this literature, we show evidence of the international spillover effects of lock-downs based on a large product-level dataset covering 98 reporting countries and 95% of global trade in goods over 18 months. With these data we can fully control for time-varying factors which could affect product-specific demand in different importing countries. We also investigate in detail the (lack of) persistence in lockdown spillovers and identify industries more exposed to containment policies. Exploting

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The pandemic led to Colombia’s largest recession on record, but the economy bounced back strongly in 2021. The banking system has so far weathered the shock well, with the help of a strong policy and support response and strong initial position. Colombia is exposed to elevated external financing risks and the further prolongation of the pandemic. Large and complex financial conglomerates with increasing cross-border exposures dominate the financial system. The consumer-credit portfolio deserves attention as it has been growing fast and had high impairment rate during the pandemic.