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International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

:H1). Online Annex Table 2.1.2 provides the full list of countries. Panel 2: For GDP, consumption, and investment, the analysis uses data for 2020:H1. For the other indicators that are available at monthly frequency, the analysis considers the first three months after COVID-19 cases reach 100 in a country. The regressions control for the logarithm of the COVID-19 cases normalized by population in 2019. Normalized coefficients reported on the vertical axis show the impact of a one-standard-deviation increase in the lockdown index on each economic variable

Mariya Brussevich, Mr. Chris Papageorgiou, and Pauline Wibaux

those that simultaneously export and import. This type of firms is generally considered to be integrated in GVCs, given that at least a part of their intermediate goods suppliers and final goods buyers are located abroad. For this sample of firms, in addition to our two variables of interest—lockdown index and COVID-19 deaths—we relate their contemporaneous exports to lagged imports. This allows us to understand how pandemic-related delays in imports of intermediate goods affected production and subsequent exports of final products. These results are presented in the

Mariya Brussevich, Mr. Chris Papageorgiou, and Pauline Wibaux
This paper uses granular customs data from France to investigate propagation of the COVID-19 shock along the supply chains in 2020. It quantifies the effect of the COVID-19 shock on trade adjustment and identifies mitigating and amplifying factors contributing to French firms’ heterogeneous adjustment paths. Early in the pandemic, firms mainly responded to global lockdowns and spread of the virus by reducing trade volumes (intensive margin) as opposed to exiting from import and export markets (ex-tensive margin). However, adjustment along the extensive margin played a more important role in trade with developing countries. It is shown that the impact of lockdowns was stronger for final consumer goods and the trade recovery was predominantly demand-driven. More automated, inventory-intensive, older, and medium-sized firms were more insulated from the shock, whereas firms’ reliance on air transportation for shipping goods amplified the shock. Trade bans and promotion measures implemented by governments in response to the pandemic had little impact on aggregate trade flows.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

calculations. Note: Advanced economies comprise Australia, Canada, Denmark, euro area, Hong Kong SAR, Israel, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Sweden, Taiwan Province of China, United Kingdom, and United States. This group represents 41.4 percent of global consumption based on purchasing-power-parity weights. Estimated coefficient of the lockdown index was –0.5 in Q2, significant at the 5 percent level. Data labels use International Organization for Standardization (ISO) country codes. Beyond the near term, widespread availability of vaccines and normalization of contact

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Context 1. Uganda’s economy was hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis . After the first COVID-19 case was detected in March 2020, the government swiftly introduced a four-month lockdown, which kept infection and fatality rates low. This had a strong negative effect on economic activity already hit hard by disruptions in global demand and supply chains. The resulting collapse in services and manufacturing halved Uganda’s real GDP growth to 3 percent in FY2019/20 (a contraction of 1.1 percent for CY 2020). Stringency of Lockdowns (Index, max. = 100

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The authorities have reacted to the COVID-19 crisis in an appropriate manner, including through increased spending on health and a rollout of the vaccination program. Nevertheless, the deterioration of socio-economic indicators during the pandemic could create scars that would significantly lower growth if left unaddressed.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The Ugandan authorities reacted swiftly to the COVID-19 crisis, locking down the economy, saving lives and avoiding a public health crisis. However, the resulting economic and social costs have been high. Per capita GDP growth remains below pre-pandemic levels, poverty gains have been reversed, fiscal balances have deteriorated, and pressures on external buffers remain high.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

improved, was not enough to offset the severe contraction earlier in the year. The partial lockdown of June-July 2021, introduced to mitigate the impact of the second wave, initially slowed the recovery (Text Figure). This is currently gaining momentum as leading indicators show some strengthening of activity, including employment rising for the first time in six months (Text Figure). Text Figure. Stringency of Lockdowns (Index, max. = 100) Source: Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker Text Figure. Economic Activity 5. Inflation remains well