calculation (Qatar, U.A.E.). Most central banks require banks to keep their required reserves at the required level every day 6 . Averaging of reserve balances within the maintenance period is not allowed or penalized, although this would enhance banks’ day-to-day liquiditymanagementefforts and encourage interbank activity. Reserve requirements have helped absorb liquidity over the past decade. The ratios were increased in 2008 in Qatar and Saudi Arabia in response to rapid liquidity growth and to help moderate credit expansion. Even when reserve requirements remained
Effective liquidity management is important to promote macro-financial stability in the GCC countries. Fixed exchange rate regimes provide credible nominal anchors in the GCC countries, but combined with open capital accounts, they also entail limited monetary policy independence. At the same time, high dependence on hydrocarbon revenue has made the region vulnerable to oil price-driven liquidity swings. And the latter can affect monetary policy implementation, including by exacerbating credit and asset price cycles. This highlights the importance of frameworks aimed at forecasting liquidity and ensuring appropriate liquidity levels through the timely absorption or injection of liquidity by central banks. Over the past decade, liquidity management in the GCC countries has been based mainly on passive instruments. Abundant liquidity during times of high oil prices have placed liquidity absorption at the center of the central bank operations. Reserve requirements have helped absorb liquidity but have not been used very actively. Standing facilities, another key instrument, are more passive in nature, with the amount of liquidity absorbed or injected driven by banks rather than monetary authorities. Central banks bills or other instruments have also been used, but issuance has not systematically been based on market principles. In addition, these operations have been constrained by limited liquidity forecasting capability and the shallow nature of interbank and domestic debt markets.
policy will need to be prudent to moderate inflation. Limiting the central bank’s lending to the government will be key to contain inflationary pressures. An active liquiditymanagementeffort will support achieving monetary targets. Strengthening banking supervision and regulation will support stability.
“The authorities are advancing growth-supporting structural reforms. Strengthening the anti-corruption framework, the AML/CFT regime, and the business climate will enhance governance and support private sector development.”
The present financial crisis is testing the resilience of the global financial system as well as the robustness of national and multilateral policy frameworks. As requested by Executive Directors, this paper reviews recent progress in meeting these challenges, focusing on the role of the Fund and its collaboration with the Financial Stability Forum (FSF). In concert with other international bodies, the Fund has sought to promote appropriate policy responses to the financial turmoil, including through its report on The Recent Financial Turmoil—Initial Assessment, Policy Lessons, and Implications for Fund Surveillance, in the Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) and the World Economic Outlook (WEO), as well as in recent Article IV consultations and Financial Sector Assessment Programs (FSAPs). The Fund has also responded to the International Monetary and Financial Committee’s (IMFC) call for closer collaboration with other international fora, including by supporting the implementation of policy lessons from the crisis, such as the 67 FSF recommendations issued in April 2008.
Improving the quality of the Fund’s financial sector analysis and integrating it with surveillance is a major undertaking that involves action on several fronts. The 2007 Financial Sector Taskforce Report (“Taskforce Report”) provided a comprehensive assessment of the status of financial sector analysis in the Fund and established a broad organizing framework on how to integrate better finance into Article IV surveillance. The 2008 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR) and supplements developed this theme further, and the Board’s ensuing Statement on Surveillance Priorities made the integration of macroeconomic and financial sector surveillance one of the four overarching operational priorities for Fund surveillance.
This paper estimates the neutral interest rate in the Kyrgyz Republic using a range of methodologies. Results indicate that the real neutral rate is about 4 percent based on an average of models and 3.7 percent based on a Quarterly Projection Model. This is higher than in many emerging markets and is likely explained by higher public debt and an elevated risk premium, low creditor rights and contractual enforcement, and low domestic savings. The use of an estimate of the neutral interest rate provides useful guidance to monetary policy and enhances transparency and independence of the central bank. Our estimate provides a quantitative benchmark for the monetary policy stance in the context of a central bank that is building analytical capacity, integrating additional insights in its decision-making process, and working to improve its communication. Strengthening the monetary transmission mechanism will be critical to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy, including by allowing more exchange rate flexibility to support the transition to a full-fledged inflation targeting regime, and reducing excess liquidity to enhance the credit channel, reducing dollarization and high interest rate spreads that adversely affect the transmission of the policy rate to the economy.
The staff report summarizes the financial sector issues of Tanzania. It assesses the overall stability and development issues, and provides an overview of the financial system highlighting its soundness and vulnerabilities. It analyzes risk management, regulation and supervision, and the effectiveness of the financial sector. It also summarizes the Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes on Banking Supervision; and the assessment of Tanzania's adherence to the Basel Core Principles.
Mr. Andrew Berg, Ms. Luisa Charry, Mr. Rafael A Portillo, and Mr. Jan Vlcek
Many central banks in low-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are modernising their monetary policy frameworks. Standard statistical procedures have had limited success in identifying the channels of monetary transmission in such countries. Here we take a narrative approach, following Romer and Romer (1989), and center on a significant tightening of monetary policy that took place in 2011 in four members of the East African Community: Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda. We find clear evidence of the transmission mechanism in most of the countries, and argue that deviations can be explained by differences in the policy regime in place.