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International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Fourteen years ago, in June 2000, the first issue of the IMF Research Bulletin was published! It has been a great and successful ride. Indeed, I am pleased to let you know that to date the bulletin has more than 19,100 subscribers. The credit for this goes to the team that has tirelessly put together issue after issue and has managed to keep you captivated. The objective of the IMF Research Bulletin is to present to a wider audience a sampling of the latest research conducted at the International Monetary Fund. The bulletin attempts to distill the main

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper provides a brief overview of the latest research on the ability of forecasters to predict recessions. The paper highlights that few recessions have been forecast before their onset. Forecasters tend to be excessively cautious and do not revise their forecasts promptly and sufficiently to reflect incoming news. Nor do they fully take into account interdependence among economies. This paper also focuses on robust growth determinants highlighting that a fundamental problem confronting researchers is the lack of an explicit theory identifying the determinants of growth.