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Ms. Wenjie Chen

PHOTO: ISTOCK / ARTEM PERETIATKO Online job posting analysis shows the extent of the pandemic’s damage, especially to women and youth High-frequency data are critical when it comes to tracking the rapid economic destruction and disruption wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic. This information has also helped confirm, nearly in real time, the unequal impact of the crisis on particular populations, especially women. Weekly and sometimes daily snapshots of human behavior—restaurant reservations, pedestrian traffic, mobile phone data, airport checkpoint

Mr. Francesco Caselli, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Weicheng Lian, and Mr. Damiano Sandri
Using high-frequency proxies for economic activity over a large sample of countries, we show that the economic crisis during the first seven months of the COVID-19 pandemic was only partly due to government lockdowns. Economic activity also contracted because of voluntary social distancing in response to higher infections. We also show that lockdowns can substantially reduce COVID-19 infections, especially if they are introduced early in a country's epidemic. Despite involving short-term economic costs, lockdowns may thus pave the way to a faster recovery by containing the spread of the virus and reducing voluntary social distancing. Finally, we document that lockdowns entail decreasing marginal economic costs but increasing marginal benefits in reducing infections. This suggests that tight short-lived lockdowns are preferable to mild prolonged measures.
Mr. Francesco Caselli, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Weicheng Lian, and Mr. Damiano Sandri

Contents 1 Introduction 2 Lockdowns and Voluntary Social Distancing 2.1 Impact on Mobility 2.1.1 Informing the Recovery 2.2 Impact on Job Postings 3 Lockdowns and COVID-19 Infections 4 Nonlinear Effects of Lockdowns 5 Conclusions References A Data Sources and Country Coverage List of Figures 1 High-Frequency Proxies of Economic Activity for the First Semester of 2020 2 Impact of a Full Lockdown on Mobility 3 Impact of Voluntary Social Distancing on Mobility 4 Contributions to the Mobility Decline 5 Impact of a Full

Mr. Francesco Caselli, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Weicheng Lian, and Mr. Damiano Sandri

2020 correlates well with the decline in real GDP growth (panel 1a). Similarly, job postings display a tight negative correlation with unemployment rates over the same period (panel 1b). These correlations indicate that mobility and job postings serve as good high-frequency proxies of economic activity. Figure 1: High-Frequency Proxies of Economic Activity for the First Semester of 2020 Notes: Mobility and job postings are computed as the daily average over the first semester of 2020. Real GDP growth for the first semester of 2020 is computed with respect to

Oya Celasun, Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen, Ms. Aiko Mineshima, Mariano Spector, and Jing Zhou

on Manufacturing IP, Jan, May, and Sep 2021 10. Impact of Supply Shocks on 2021 GDP 11. Impact of Supply Shocks on PPI and Core CPI 12. Impact of Shutdowns: Country Diversity 13. Impact of Shutdowns: The Role of Differentiated Goods Inputs 14. Drivers of Supply Shocks 15. Key Indicators for the Semiconductor Market 16. Market Expectations on Supply Normalization and Transport Job Postings 17. Frequency of Terms Related to Supply Disruptions in News (weekly average) 18. Online News: When Supply/Chip Shortage Eases 19. Translating IP Impacts to